Business, Governance & Sustainability
🔍/
Power · Nonmarket Strategy · Sustainability

Business, Governance
& Sustainability

15 sessions covering nonmarket strategy, political economy, lobbying, globalization, NGOs, CSR and sustainability – built around 10 landmark case studies from Uber to Apple.

15 Sessions 10 Case Studies 40% Final Exam

Session Map

All 15 Sessions
Session 01

Politics of Disruption

Nonmarket environment intro. Case: Uber and Stakeholders.

1
Sessions 02–03

Power & Nonmarket Analysis

Selectorate theory · (ia)³ framework · Wal-Mart A & B.

2
Session 04

Lobbying & Political Strategy

10-step lobbying strategy. Case: Xstrata mining tax.

4
Session 05

Globalization & Trade Politics

WTO, trade policy, issue life cycle. Case: Chiquita A & B.

5
Session 06

International Investment Risks

Obsolescing bargain, ICSID. Case: Aguas del Aconquija.

6
Session 07

NGOs, Boycotts & Movements

Private politics, activist campaigns. Case: Nike labor.

7
Session 08

Corporate Social Responsibility

CSR vs. CSV · Porter & Kramer. Case: PepsiCo.

8
Session 09

Sustainability as Strategy

Greenwashing, ESG credibility. Case: BP Beyond Petroleum.

9
Sessions 10–11

Markets & Their Limits

Tragedy of the Commons, Ostrom. Simulation: The Lake.

10
Session 12

It’s Not Easy Being Green

Carbon claims, greenwashing risk. Case: FIJI Water.

12
Session 13

How Far Does CSR Extend?

Corporate political activism. Case: Disney.

13
Session 14

Apple: Navigating Conflicts

Full synthesis exam case. Apple’s New Political Reality.

14

Core Framework

Master Reference
Course Thesis Successful corporate strategy must align a firm’s capabilities with the demands of both its market and nonmarket environment. The nonmarket environment encompasses political, regulatory, social, and institutional forces that can reshape a firm’s competitive position.
MASTER FORMULA ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Risk Severity = Probability x Expected Loss Nonmarket Score = f(Issues, Interests, Institutions, Information, Incentives, Ideas) Full Strategy = Market Strategy + Nonmarket Strategy ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── EXAM PROMPT STRUCTURE Step 1 → Rank non-market issues: Most Severe to Least Severe Step 2 → Justify severity using Risk = Prob x Expected Loss Step 3 → Construct integrated strategy for the top risks Step 4 → Draw on case precedents to support your arguments
Session 01 · Part I Uber – HBS 315139

Politics of Disruption

What is this class all about? Using Uber to see how the nonmarket environment shapes business opportunities and strategy – and why governments always eventually get involved.

Governance Social Challenge Economic Development
2009Uber Founded
70+Countries Operating
$40B+Peak Valuation (2014)
Bannedin 10+ jurisdictions
Smash & GrabCore NM Strategy

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
Travis Kalanick
Co-founder & CEO, Uber
Aggressive growth-at-all-costs mindset. Prioritised user base expansion over stakeholder management. Believed the product's brilliance would override opposition. Classic "narcissistic millennial CEO" blind spot to nonmarket forces.
Taxi Industry
Incumbent Adversary
Licensed operators with deep regulatory ties and high sunk costs in medallions. Organised, homogeneous, single-issue – exactly the type of opponent the (ia)³ framework rates as highly effective. Moved immediately to nonmarket arena when losing in market.
City & National Governments
Institutional Arbiters
Responded to taxi industry pressure and public safety concerns. Slow to categorise new market types – tried to fit Uber into old frameworks (taxi vs. tech company). Responses varied sharply: localised vs. national regulatory approaches.
Uber Drivers
Gig Workers / Stakeholders
Initially aligned with Uber (income opportunity), but later became a nonmarket liability as concerns about labour rights, benefits, and classification (employee vs. contractor) escalated into legislation and lawsuits.
Customers / Riders
Diffuse Beneficiaries
Massive, unorganised, heterogeneous group – difficult to mobilise politically. Key tension: those who benefited most from Uber's low prices had the least capacity to organise in its defence. Classic collective action problem.
Regulators / Media
Nonmarket Amplifiers
Safety incidents, surge pricing controversies, and executive misconduct provided continuous negative press. Governments used safety narratives to justify regulation once political will aligned with taxi industry interests.

Analysis

Session Content
Page:
1. What is Uber’s Business Model?

Uber is a platform company that connects riders with drivers via a smartphone app. It operates on a two-sided market model: drivers provide the supply, riders provide demand, and Uber extracts a commission (~20–25%) from each transaction without owning a single vehicle.

Its core competitive advantage was network effects: the more drivers on the platform, the shorter wait times; the more riders, the more earning opportunities for drivers. This created a winner-take-all dynamic that incentivised rapid geographic expansion before competitors could establish scale.

Uber’s pricing model (surge pricing) was efficient from a market perspective but generated public outrage – a classic nonmarket tension where what is economically rational is politically toxic.

The Identity TrapUber had a schizophrenic identity: its market strategy pushed forward as a transportation company (taking rides, hiring drivers), while its nonmarket strategy claimed it was merely a tech platform with no regulatory obligations. Regulators noticed the contradiction.
2. Uber’s Nonmarket Environment

The nonmarket environment is everything outside the direct buyer-seller relationship: governments, NGOs, regulators, activists, media, and citizens. For Uber, this environment was almost entirely hostile from day one.

Nonmarket ActorStancePower SourceArena
Taxi Medallion OwnersHostileRegulatory capture, organised lobbyCity councils, courts
Transport UnionsHostilePolitical connections, strike threatLegislatures, media
City GovernmentsMixedLicensing authority, safety mandateMunicipal regulation
National GovernmentsMixedLegal framework, competition lawNational legislation
DriversInitially alignedOperational dependencyCourts, labour boards
RidersDiffusely supportiveWeak (unorganised)Social media, surveys
MediaIncreasingly hostileAgenda-setting, narrative powerPublic opinion
Course PrincipleWhen people lose in the market, they move to the nonmarket to try to solve their problem. The taxi industry is the textbook case: unable to compete on price or convenience, they redirected resources into political and legal campaigns.
3. Was Uber’s “Smash & Grab” Strategy Smart?

Uber pursued a deliberate “smash and grab” strategy: enter markets as fast as possible, build user base, then dare governments to ban a service millions of people already loved. The logic was that political cost of removing Uber exceeded the cost of regulating it.

Arguments ForNo proprietary technology – the moat was purely network scale. Speed to #1 was existential. Getting to critical mass first made it very difficult to displace. Uber correctly bet that ridership loyalty would create political pressure on governments not to ban it.
Arguments AgainstMade more enemies than allies. Upset governments who controlled its operating licences. No backup strategy if regulators acted. Hometown bias: Kalanick assumed his product’s brilliance would override local political dynamics internationally – it often did not.

The deeper problem: Uber had no nonmarket strategy to accompany its aggressive market strategy. It treated regulatory opposition as a temporary obstacle to be overcome by market momentum, rather than a structural challenge requiring deliberate management.

4. Why Governments Always Get Involved in Disruption

This is a structural certainty, not a contingent outcome. Three mechanisms drive it:

  1. Displacement losers organise: Disruptive technology displaces existing workers. Those workers are organised, have political relationships, and move quickly to the nonmarket. Taxi drivers are the perfect example.
  2. Government responsibility for public goods: Safety, labour standards, tax collection – governments cannot ignore platforms operating in their jurisdiction without accountability.
  3. Categorisation lag: Governments try to fit new products into old regulatory categories. Uber did not fit “taxi” or “software,” and different jurisdictions resolved this differently – creating a fragmented global regulatory landscape.
Key Takeaway for ExamYou should expect government involvement any time a firm enters a heavily regulated industry. The question is not whether governments will act, but when and how – and whether you have a nonmarket strategy ready when they do.
5. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Uber’s critics argued it was a transportation company; Uber insisted it was a technology platform. What are the nonmarket stakes of each classification, and why does it matter strategically?
  2. Apply the (ia)³ framework to Uber’s entry into a new city. What issues, actors, and arenas should it have mapped before launching?
  3. Was Uber’s smash-and-grab strategy a rational nonmarket choice or a failure of nonmarket thinking? Use evidence from the case to support your answer.
  4. What could Uber have done differently in its early years to reduce the severity of the nonmarket backlash it faced?
  5. Compare Uber’s nonmarket position to that of a traditional taxi company. Who had better nonmarket assets, and why?
Sessions 02–03 · Part I Wal-Mart A & B – Stanford P-52A/B

Understanding Power & Nonmarket Analysis

Selectorate Theory explains why political leaders do what they do. The (ia)³ framework gives firms the tools to analyse and respond to their nonmarket environment. Wal-Mart shows what happens when a company ignores both until it is too late.

Governance Social Challenge Economic Development
5,482Wal-Mart stores (2005)
1.3MUS employees
$312BSales FY2005
2,165Press articles/week by 2004
−27%Stock price drop (2000–05)
$25MUnion anti-Walmart campaign

Cast of Characters

Wal-Mart Case
H. Lee Scott
CEO, Wal-Mart (2000–09)
Inherited a company focused purely on customers and associates. Slow to recognise nonmarket threat; eventually acknowledged: “We thought we could sit in Bentonville and the world would leave us alone.” Led the pivot to active nonmarket strategy.
UFCW / SEIU
Unions – Lead Adversaries
Failed to organise Wal-Mart workers directly. Redirected $25M+ into private politics: WakeUpWalMart.com, Wal-Mart Watch, documentary films, 50-group coalition. Staffed by Democratic political operatives. Textbook private politics campaign.
Senator Edward Kennedy
Public Politics Actor
“It’s time for Wal-Mart to understand that their company practices run counter to the very values that make this country great.” Represented the public politics dimension – translating union pressure into legislative action.
WakeUpWalMart.com
Private Politics Organisation
UFCW-funded campaign led by Paul Blank (former Howard Dean political director). 160,000+ signatories. Full-page ads, filmmaker partnerships, ministerial letters. Targeted Wal-Mart’s reputation directly to drive “headline risk.”
Maryland Legislature
Institutional Arena
Passed the “Wal-Mart Bill” requiring firms with 10,000+ employees to spend 8% of payroll on health care – effectively targeted at Wal-Mart alone. Overrode Republican governor’s veto. Shows how unions can use state legislatures when federal action is blocked.
Wal-Mart Customers / Associates
Diffuse Beneficiaries
Low-income consumers who benefited most from Wal-Mart’s prices were the least able to organise politically in its defence. Associates voted consistently against unionisation. The ironies of collective action.

Part A – Selectorate Theory

Reading: Dictator’s Handbook Ch.1
Section:
Why Should Business Leaders Care About Politics?

Political leaders play a key role in shaping public policies and the formal rules of the market. To understand what policies will be made, you need to understand what political leaders want and how they stay in power. This is what Selectorate Theory explains.

The insight: political leaders’ primary interest is political survival, not the public good. Policy – taxes, spending, and rules – is the primary tool for building and maintaining the winning coalition needed to stay in power. State structures (the rules of political competition) determine what kind of winning coalition is needed and therefore what policies leaders will deliver.

The Core Framework: S, W, and W/S
SELECTORATE THEORY – KEY DEFINITIONS Selectorate (S) = All individuals with a formal say in choosing leadership (e.g., all registered voters in a democracy; all party members in a single-party state) Winning Coalition (W) = The subset of S whose active support the leader needs to hold power (cabinet, generals, major donors, etc.) W / S Ratio = Rough probability that any selectorate member is in the winning coalition THE LOYALTY MECHANISM High W/S --> Low loyalty --> Members can defect to challenger easily Leader must deliver PUBLIC GOODS (roads, education, rule of law) to retain broad support Low W/S --> High loyalty --> Members rarely defect (too risky to be outside W) Leader can deliver PRIVATE GOODS (contracts, cash, patronage) to small group rather than public goods IMPLICATION FOR FIRMS Small W, Large S --> Private goods regime --> Build direct ties with W Large W, Large S --> Public goods regime --> Build broad coalition, use info
How Leaders Stay in Power (6 Rules)
  1. Keep W small – limits who must be satisfied with private goods
  2. Keep S large – makes it harder for challengers to assemble a rival winning coalition from outside
  3. Fill W with members who display high affinity for the incumbent (harder to bribe away)
  4. Control revenue flows – whoever controls money controls loyalty
  5. Implement policies that transfer enough resources to W to keep them loyal
  6. Do not implement policies that transfer resources from W to the rest of the population
Business ImplicationTo influence a leader and her policies, become key to her survival. This usually means being inside W, building ties with key W members, or offering value (financial support, reputational boost) that makes the leader unwilling to act against you.
Selectorate Theory – The Three Circles of Political Power
POPULATION (N) All people in the polity SELECTORATE (S) Those with formal say in choosing leadership WINNING COALITION (W) Must stay loyal SMALL W / LARGE S High loyalty (hard to defect) Private goods regime Build direct ties to W LARGE W / LARGE S Low loyalty (easy to defect) Public goods regime Broad coalitions; info FIRM STRATEGY Become key to W survival to influence policy
Policy Implications of W/S Ratio
DimensionSmall W (Autocracy)Large W (Democracy)
Type of goods deliveredPrivate (kleptocracy)Public (rule of law, services)
Tax ratesHigh (extract for W)Lower (broad efficiency)
Regulatory qualityLow (selective enforcement)Higher (transparent rules)
Business strategy implicationFind the W members; pay/lobby them directlyLobby broadly, use public information campaigns
W/S loyaltyHigh (low outside options)Low (members can defect easily)
Exam RelevanceWhen asked to analyse a firm’s political environment in a new country, first determine the W/S ratio. A small, loyal winning coalition (autocracy) requires a different nonmarket strategy than a large, competitive winning coalition (democracy). Xstrata (Session 4) and Aguas (Session 6) are direct applications.
The Obsolescing Bargain – Power Shifts After Investment
Time Bargaining Power Low High Investment Date Power shifts here Pre-Investment: Firm has leverage Post-Investment: Govt has leverage Firm bargaining power Host govt bargaining power

Part B – The (ia)³ Framework

Master Analytical Tool
Section:
The Full (ia)³ Framework
THE (ia)3 FRAMEWORK – SIX DIMENSIONS (IA)3 = Issues / Actors / Interests / Arenas / Information / Assets I ISSUES What specific nonmarket problem does the firm face? Big vs. small? Broad vs. narrow? Recurrent vs. one-time? Where is it in the issue life cycle? A ACTORS Who cares? Organised or unorganised? Homogeneous or heterogeneous? Rich in resources or poor? I INTERESTS What do the various actors want? Where do they stand? How important is this issue to them? Who are allies? Who are adversaries? What coalitions are possible? A ARENAS Local, regional, national, international? Formal or informal? Public or private? Who has standing? Who has influence? I INFORMATION Critical data and knowledge that shapes issue evolution: preferences of key groups, scientific evidence, public sentiment, polling data, media framing A ASSETS Nonmarket resources needed to prevail in this arena: reputation, access to decision-makers, process knowledge, networks, contacts, allies, critical information, money
How to Use It in the ExamThe (ia)³ is your primary diagnostic tool. For any firm case, run through all six dimensions before proposing strategy. The framework tells you where the battle is being fought before you decide how to fight it.
Issue Life Cycle – Timing Your Response

Issues move through a predictable lifecycle. The firm’s ability to influence an issue declines as it advances through stages, while the cost of not acting rises sharply.

StageDescriptionFirm ImpactBest Strategy
1. Issue IdentificationIssue emerges; few actors engagedLow but risingShape early – highest leverage
2. Interest Group FormationOpponents begin to organiseMediumEngage before coalitions harden
3. LegislationBills proposed; lobbying intensifiesHighLobby, mobilise allies
4. AdministrationRegulations written and implementedVery highParticipate in regulatory process
5. EnforcementRules applied; legal challengesMaximumCompliance or litigation – most costly
Critical LessonWal-Mart waited until Stage 3–4 to develop a nonmarket strategy. By then, legislation had already passed in Maryland and 30+ states were considering similar bills. Early nonmarket engagement (Stage 1–2) would have been vastly cheaper.
Issue Life Cycle – Leverage vs. Cost Over Time
Low High Time / Issue Progression Impact / Leverage Identification Formation Legislation Administration Enforcement ACT HERE Max leverage Firm's leverage over issue Issue's impact on firm
Market vs. Nonmarket Environment – Key Differences
DimensionMarket EnvironmentNonmarket Environment
Mediated byPrice signals, contractsPublic/private institutions, political processes
Key actorsCustomers, suppliers, competitorsGovernments, NGOs, media, citizens, regulators
Analytical toolPorter’s Five Forces, Value Chain(ia)³ Framework
Goal of strategyCompetitive advantageFavourable rules, reputation, political access
Speed of changeFast (market feedback)Slow (institutional change), but can accelerate suddenly
Currency of influencePrice, quality, innovationInformation, reputation, relationships, money
Integrated StrategyLeading firms develop integrated strategies that coordinate market and nonmarket positions. The nonmarket strategy can enable, complement, reinforce, or protect the market strategy. Starbucks, Avon, Toyota, and McDonald’s are textbook examples.
The Nonmarket Environment – The Firm’s Full World
THE FIRM Strategy Customers · Suppliers · Competitors MARKET ENVIRONMENT Governments & Regulators NGOs Activists Media Citizens Courts & Institutions Unions Investors NONMARKET ENVIRONMENT

Part D – Varieties of Capitalism

Readings: Gilpin Ch.7 · Clash · Dominant Systems
Section:
Why Capitalism Varies – and Why It Matters for Nonmarket Strategy

Not all capitalist economies work the same way. The political economy of a country shapes what firms can do, how governments intervene, and what nonmarket strategies will be effective. Robert Gilpin’s Global Political Economy (Ch.7) identifies three dominant systems, each with a distinct logic – and a distinct nonmarket environment.

The Core InsightThe same nonmarket strategy that works in the United States (media campaigns, shareholder activism, litigation) may fail completely in Japan (relationship-based consensus) or Germany (codetermination board processes). The system of capitalism shapes the nonmarket arena. Before designing strategy, you must understand which capitalism you are operating in.
DimensionAmerican (Market-Oriented)Japanese (Developmental)German (“Social Market”)
Primary GoalMaximise consumer welfare & individual wealth creationNational power & economic catch-up; social harmonyBalance market efficiency with social welfare; domestic harmony
Role of StateLimited & non-interventionist; correct market failures; antitrustCentral & interventionist; “administrative guidance”; pick strategic sectorsIndirect support; strong social safety net; Bundesbank macrostability
Corporate StructureShareholder-focused; dispersed ownership; hostile takeovers commonStakeholder-focused; keiretsu cross-shareholding; main bank financingStakeholder-focused; codetermination (labour on boards); Mittelstand
Corporate GoalProfit for shareholders; firm = commodity to be bought/soldMarket share + national power; long-term orientationSocial welfare + efficiency; balance between profit and community
Key InstitutionAntitrust law; SEC; fragmented financial systemKeiretsu (interlocked business groups); MITI; main bankUniversal banks (deep industry ties); Works Councils; codetermination law
Nonmarket Strategy ImplicationLobby Congress, litigate, use media, mobilise shareholdersBuild keiretsu relationships; work through METI channels; avoid being outsiderEngage Works Councils; work through industry federations; negotiate not litigate
StrengthFlexibility, innovation, adaptabilityLong-term planning, efficiency, export coordinationSocial stability, labour peace, high-quality manufacturing
WeaknessHigh social costs, inequality, short-termismClosed & inflexible; resistant to outsiders and importsHigh labour costs; burden on international competitiveness
Shareholder vs. Stakeholder Capitalism – The Core Divide

Gilpin identifies this as the fundamental tension in comparative capitalism. It directly shapes nonmarket environments because it determines who firms are accountable to and what counts as legitimate corporate behaviour.

SHAREHOLDER vs. STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM (US Model) - Firm’s fundamental purpose: generate profit for investors - Corporation = a commodity to be bought and sold - Management separated from ownership (managerial capitalism) - Minimal obligations to employees or communities - 1980s: leveraged buyouts, hostile takeovers normalised - Nonmarket implication: shareholders are the primary accountability lever; activist investors, proxy battles, ESG resolutions are key tools STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM (German/Japanese Model) - Firm has major responsibility to stakeholders: workers, subcontractors, suppliers, communities - Profitability assigned LESS importance than economic stability - German law: Codetermination → equal labour representation on supervisory boards - Japanese keiretsu: protect from hostile takeovers; long-term relationships - Nonmarket implication: changing firm behaviour requires INTERNAL negotiation (Works Councils, board processes) not external campaigns THE BGS COURSE RELEVANCE: - CSR debates (PepsiCo, Nike, BP) play out differently in each system - What Wal-Mart faced in the US (shareholder pressure, media, litigation) would look very different in Germany (codetermination, union board seats) - Apple’s DEI dilemma is US-specific; in Germany, Works Councils have formal legal authority over such workplace policies
Three Big Questions About Capitalism Systems

The “Guide to Dominant Capitalist Systems” reading frames three global questions about how these systems interact – directly relevant to multinational nonmarket strategy:

QuestionThe AnswerBGS Implication
1. Is one system truly superior?No. Success depends on historical context and national goals. What works for catch-up economies may not work for innovation-leading ones.Don’t assume your home-country system is universal. Aguas failed partly by imposing French corporate norms on an Argentine province.
2. Do nations compete like corporations?Not directly – but nations create competitive environments for their firms. National well-being depends on productivity growth, not zero-sum competition.Xstrata’s argument about Australian “sovereign risk” was a competition-between-nations argument: Canada gains from Australia’s bad policy.
3. How can divergent systems coexist?Three paths: Convergence (competition forces best practices), Harmonisation (WTO/treaty agreements), Mutual Recognition (accept each other’s different rules as legitimate)The EU DMA case (Apple) is a harmonisation conflict: US liberal platform norms vs EU stakeholder-oriented regulation of market power.
Exam TransferWhen a case involves a multinational operating across different capitalism systems, ask: which system’s logic is the government applying? A Japanese industrial policy response requires a different firm strategy than an American antitrust intervention. The type of capitalism shapes the nonmarket arena and the viable strategies within it.
Key Terms: Keiretsu, Codetermination, Mittelstand, Developmental State
TermSystemDefinitionNonmarket Significance
KeiretsuJapanNetworks of businesses linked by cross-shareholding working for mutual interests; centred on a “main bank” that provides capital and strategic guidanceMakes hostile takeovers nearly impossible; outsiders (foreign MNCs) have very limited influence; access requires building into the network over time
Codetermination (Mitbestimmung)GermanyLegal requirement for equal labour representation on supervisory boards of large German companies; workers are co-owners of strategic decisionsLabour has formal veto power on major decisions; nonmarket strategy must include internal negotiation with Works Councils before external action
MittelstandGermanyMedium-sized, specialised, often family-owned exporting firms that form the backbone of German manufacturing and export competitivenessThese firms have powerful collective voice through the Federation of German Industries; less susceptible to shareholder pressure than US equivalents
Developmental StateJapan (also S. Korea, Singapore)A state that actively guides the economy through “administrative guidance,” strategic industrial policy, and support for national champions; MITI is the prototypeLobbying a developmental state requires building government partnerships, not just information campaigns; the state sees itself as a co-strategist of industry

Part C – Wal-Mart Case Analysis

Cases P-52A & P-52B
Section:
Case A – The Nonmarket Crisis: Issues, Pressure, and Reputation Risk

By 2005 Wal-Mart – the second largest US employer after the federal government – faced a coordinated multi-front nonmarket campaign driven primarily by unions who had failed to organise its workforce.

IssueCritics’ ClaimWal-Mart’s ResponseSeverity
WagesPoverty-level pay; depresses industry wagesAverage wage nearly 2x minimum wage; 74% full-time vs 20–40% industryHigh
Health Care900K workers without benefits; taxpayers subsidise via Medicaid48% covered (vs 46% retail avg); introduced $23/month planHigh
Discrimination1.6M women paid 5–15% less than men; blocked promotionsDenied; appealed class-action statusHigh
EnvironmentClean Water Act violations; urban sprawl; greenhouse emissionsPaid $4.5M EPA settlement; launched major green initiative 2005Medium
Supplier LabourSweatshop conditions in overseas factories200 inspectors; 12,000 visits/year; 1,200 factories suspended in 2004Medium

Unions redirected organising failure into a private politics assault. The SEIU funded Wal-Mart Watch ($1M initial pledge, 36-person DC staff). The UFCW launched WakeUpWalMart.com (160,000+ participants). Both campaigns were run by Democratic political operatives. Key tactic: manufactured “headline risk” – by 2004 Wal-Mart was the subject of 2,165 press articles per week, up from 950 in 2001.

CEO Scott’s Admission“Over the years, we have thought that we could sit in Bentonville, take care of customers, take care of associates, and the world would leave us alone. It just doesn’t work that way anymore.” This is the case’s central lesson: size creates nonmarket obligations.
Case B – Wal-Mart’s Nonmarket Strategy Response
Strategic ActionNonmarket TargetEffectiveness
War room in Bentonville + Action Alley in DCCrisis management, political intelligenceImproved responsiveness
Hired political veterans (Deaver, Dach, Edelman PR)Political credibility, media relationsMore sophisticated messaging
Full-page ads in 100 newspapers (Jan 2005)Information battle – correct misperceptionsPartially effective; critics dismissed it
$35M Acres for America; $500M green initiativeEnvironmental critics (Sierra Club, NRDC)Drew praise; defused environmental front
“Working Families for Wal-Mart” front groupBuild grassroots counter-coalitionBackfired when union ties were revealed
Pledged not to open branch banks (Utah application)Banking industry coalitionReduced but did not eliminate opposition
What’s MissingWal-Mart’s strategy was largely reactive. It addressed symptoms (reputation, press, specific legislation) rather than the underlying structural cause: the company’s size had created a legitimate public interest in its labour and environmental practices. True integration of nonmarket strategy with market strategy would have addressed this much earlier.
Applying (ia)³ to Wal-Mart
WAL-MART (ia)3 APPLIED – WAGES/HEALTH CARE ISSUE ISSUES Wages below living wage standard; inadequate health benefits; workers on Medicaid at taxpayer expense ACTORS Unions (UFCW, SEIU) – organised, rich in resources, single issue Employees – unorganised, heterogeneous, multiple concerns Politicians – responsive to union pressure, media framing Customers – diffuse, unorganised, benefit from low prices Media – agenda-setting power; 2,165 articles/week INTERESTS Unions: increase costs on Wal-Mart, assist organising Employees: job security, wages, benefits Politicians: respond to constituents; avoid anti-worker label Wal-Mart: maintain cost structure; avoid unionisation; grow ARENAS State legislatures (Maryland Bill model legislation) Courts (class-action wage suits) Media (documentary films, newspaper ads) Federal regulatory agencies (DOL, FDIC, EPA) INFORMATION Leaked internal memo (Chamber document) – devastating Zogby poll: 56% say Wal-Mart bad for America Global Insight study: Wal-Mart saved avg household $2,329/yr Costco comparison: higher wages, same profitability ASSETS Unions: political connections, money, organising expertise Wal-Mart: scale, legal resources, customer satisfaction, local jobs Critics: moral narrative; ability to define public framing
Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Apply the (ia)³ framework to one of Wal-Mart’s nonmarket issues. What does the framework reveal about Wal-Mart’s strategic options?
  2. Using Selectorate Theory, explain how a firm operating in an autocratic vs. democratic country should structure its nonmarket strategy differently.
  3. The unions that attacked Wal-Mart were “organised, homogeneous, single-issue, and rich in resources.” Why does this profile make them highly effective in the nonmarket arena?
  4. Was Wal-Mart’s nonmarket response (Case B) too little, too late? What should it have done earlier and when in the issue life cycle?
  5. Compare Wal-Mart’s integrated strategy to that of Starbucks or Toyota. What does “integration” of market and nonmarket strategy actually mean in practice?
Session 04 · Part II Xstrata – STR010085

Lobbying & Political Strategy

Lobbying is the strategic use of information. Xstrata and the Australian mining industry ran a masterclass in nonmarket strategy – and toppled a Prime Minister in the process.

Governance Economic Development
33%Xstrata assets in Australia
40%Proposed RSPT rate
43→57%Effective tax rate (estimated)
A$22MIndustry ad spend in 6 weeks
A$55BProjects suspended
1 PMDeposed by campaign

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
Xstrata / Mick Davis
Swiss-HQ'd Mining MNC, CEO
33% of assets in Australia; 40% of 2009 earnings from Australian ops. First big miner to engage the government consultation panel. Led FT open letter to global investors on sovereign risk. Suspended A$586M in projects to signal credibility.
Kevin Rudd
Australian PM (Labor)
Proposed the RSPT as a tax on “super profits” from Australian-owned natural resources. Politically gifted framing (pension funds + lower corporate tax), but failed to consult industry first. Deposed by his own party on June 23, 2010.
Julia Gillard
Deputy PM → PM (Labor)
Replaced Rudd and immediately suspended the government’s ad campaign. Invited Xstrata, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto to direct negotiations, signalling willingness to compromise. The mining industry’s media pressure had made her politically vulnerable.
Minerals Council of Australia (MCA)
Industry Association – Campaign Hub
Coordinated A$17.2M of the A$22M ad campaign via Lawrence Creative Strategy. “Keep Mining Strong” slogan on TV, print, Facebook, Twitter, and T-shirts worn by Opposition leader Tony Abbott. First campaign of its kind in Australia.
Tony Abbott / Coalition
Federal Opposition
Allied with mining industry from day one. Called the RSPT “economic vandalism.” Wore Keep Mining Strong T-shirt. Committed to rescind the tax if elected. Made it a central election issue – key to the political pressure on the ALP.
Business Council of Australia
Broader Business Community
Initially neutral, but the mining industry’s campaign shifted them. By June 2010, BCA president Graham Bradley publicly called on the government to “scrap RSPT and start again from ground up.” A critical alliance-building victory for miners.

Framework: What is Lobbying?

Core Definition
LOBBYING DEFINED "Any action designed to influence the actions of the institutions of government." -- Association of Professional Political Consultants (APPC) LOBBYING IS STRATEGIC USE OF INFORMATION 1. REFRAMING Change how the issue is understood by decision-makers and the public. Control the narrative before opponents do. 2. COALITION Ally with others who share your interest. Industry associations facilitate coordination and consistency of message. 3. CREDIBLE THREATS Signal costs if policy passes. Project cancellations, job losses, capital flight -- must be credible to be effective. 4. TIMING Act early in the issue life cycle. Xstrata engaged the government consultation panel on Day 8 after announcement. 5. MEDIA Reach stakeholders governments can't ignore: voters, institutional investors, international business press.
Page:
1. The RSPT: What the Government Wanted and Why

Australia’s mining sector had boomed through the 2000s, driven by Chinese demand. But because mining was taxed on volume (not profits), the government’s share of total mineral value had fallen from ~45% to less than 15% by 2008–09. The Henry Tax Review recommended replacing the royalty system with a 40% Resource Super Profit Tax (RSPT) on all profits above the 10-year bond rate.

Rudd’s genius: he framed it as ordinary Australians getting their fair share from resources they owned, linked to a lower corporate tax rate (30% to 28%) and higher pension contributions. As one commentator noted: “imposing a tax on multinational mining companies to increase superannuation savings for mums and dads – you don’t need a political science degree to see how that plays out in the electorate.”

The Fatal FlawRudd announced the RSPT with no prior consultation with the mining industry. This left miners with nothing to lose by fighting it publicly – and gave them a legitimate grievance about process (not just outcomes) that resonated with the broader business community.
2. Xstrata’s Multi-Front Lobbying Strategy
TacticTargetMechanismEffectiveness
Government consultation panel (Day 8)Rudd governmentDirect engagement, raised fundamental objections to rate/scopeLimited – panel only covered implementation, not fundamentals
“Keep Mining Strong” media campaign (A$22M)Australian public, voters33 TV ads/day, print, digital, social; Lawrence Creative StrategyShifted public opinion; damaged ALP polling in QLD and WA
Mick Davis FT open letter (June 2)Global institutional investorsFramed RSPT as sovereign risk; JP Morgan sold 25% of BHP/Rio holdingsInternational capital flight signal – raised political cost
Project suspensions (A$586M + A$22B review)Government, media, votersCredible threat: jobs, investment, community impactA$55B total suspended; Deloitte study validated claims
Alliance with Opposition (Tony Abbott)ParliamentMade RSPT a key election issue; Abbott wore Keep Mining Strong T-shirtConverted media campaign into electoral threat
Business Council of Australia pivotBroader business communityFraming expanded from “mining issue” to “sovereign risk for all business”BCA called for RSPT to be scrapped entirely
Key Insight: The Foreign Firm ProblemXstrata was a Swiss-headquartered multinational. Intervening in Australian domestic policy as a foreigner carries legitimacy risk. The MCA industry association solved this – it let mining companies hide behind an Australian face while coordinating their message. Alliances don’t just augment; they shield companies from scrutiny.
3. Message Framing: The Battle of Information

The RSPT debate became a battle of competing economic models – a pure information war. Both sides used KPMG models that reached opposite conclusions based on different assumptions. The information war had a clear victor: the mining industry succeeded in shifting the frame from “fair share for Australians” to “sovereign risk and investment uncertainty.”

FramePushed ByMessageResult
Fairness / Public goodRudd governmentAustralians own the resources; deserve a fair shareInitial support ~50% public
Sovereign risk / JobsMining industry (MCA)Tax damages investment, destroys jobs, undermines confidencePublic support fell to ~40%; undecided rose from 14% to 21%
Election threatCoalition + MiningALP will lose QLD and WA seats over this taxALP internals confirmed; Rudd deposed June 23, 2010
The OutcomeKevin Rudd was informed by his Deputy Julia Gillard on the evening of June 23, 2010 that she would challenge him for leadership. He stepped down without a vote. A media campaign orchestrated by private companies had contributed to deposing the most powerful person in Australian politics. Rio Tinto’s CEO declared the RSPT was now “dead.”
Reading: Entry & Asymmetric Lobbying – Why Governments Pick Losers

Baldwin & Robert-Nicoud (2001) solve a famous paradox in political economy: governments almost always protect declining industries (agriculture, textiles, steel, footwear) rather than growing ones. This seems irrational – why support losers? The answer has direct implications for how firms should time and design their lobbying campaigns.

THE LOSER’S PARADOX – CORE INSIGHT Observation: The most protected US/EU sectors are all in decline: agriculture, textiles, clothing, footwear, steel, shipbuilding The Paradox: If lobbying dollars are equally welcome from any sector, why do declining industries receive a disproportionate share of government support? THE MECHANISM – ASYMMETRIC APPROPRIABILITY: EXPANDING INDUSTRY: - Lobbying creates a subsidy/protection - High profit attracts NEW ENTRANT FIRMS - Entry erodes the rents the incumbent lobbied for - Net benefit to any individual firm = LOW - Therefore: incentive to lobby is WEAK DECLINING INDUSTRY: - Firms already have SUNK COSTS they cannot recover - Lobbying creates a subsidy/protection - No new entrants (why enter a declining sector?) - Sunk costs mean incumbents capture full benefit of lobbying - Net benefit per firm = HIGH - Therefore: incentive to lobby is STRONG CONCLUSION: It is not that government policy picks losers. It is that LOSERS PICK GOVERNMENT POLICY. RELATED PHENOMENON – THE NIMBY EFFECT: Special interest groups fight harder to AVOID LOSSES than they do to ACHIEVE EQUIVALENT GAINS. Loss aversion in politics, not just psychology.
ImplicationApplication
Timing: lobby when threatened, not when growingTaxi industry (Uber session) represents exactly this pattern – an incumbent in decline with sunk medallion investments fighting hard to protect those rents via regulation
Sunk costs = lobbying commitment deviceXstrata’s A$45B already invested in Australia made it credible that they would fight hard against the RSPT – those sunk costs gave their threats legitimacy
Entry threats dilute lobbying returnsIndustries where entry is easy (low sunk costs) have weaker incentives to lobby for protection because new entrants will capture the rents
Severity assessmentWhen ranking nonmarket risks for a firm, ask: who are the incumbents with sunk costs threatened by this change? They will be your most motivated and organised opponents – highest-probability adversaries
Exam TransferThe asymmetric lobbying insight appears in multiple cases. The taxi industry (Uber), Safeway/Kroger/Albertsons (Wal-Mart), EU importers (Chiquita), and taxi medallion holders all had sunk investments in their current market positions – making them fierce, organised lobbyists against change. When you see sunk-cost incumbents in a case, expect maximum-intensity nonmarket opposition.
4. Why Was Xstrata’s Strategy Successful?

The group report question for this case is: Why was Xstrata’s nonmarket strategy successful? Five factors explain it:

  1. Speed: Xstrata engaged the government consultation panel on Day 8. The campaign launched May 9 – just 7 days after the announcement. Early engagement prevented a dominant government narrative from forming.
  2. Coalition breadth: Miners coordinated through MCA; junior miners through AMEC; Opposition party through Abbott. The coalition widened from “big foreign miners” to “all Australian business.”
  3. Credible threats: Project suspensions were real. A$55B in projects were genuinely put on hold, validated by independent analysis. The government could not dismiss them as bluster.
  4. Arena selection: Mining companies understood that the real arena was not the consultation panel (limited mandate) but public opinion and electoral politics. They shifted the fight to the right arena.
  5. Information dominance: The mining industry successfully reframed “fairness” as “sovereign risk.” Confusing the public (making them uncertain rather than opposed) was sufficient to damage the government politically.
Ethical NoteEffective lobbying requires an integrated market and nonmarket strategy – and it must be ethical. Xstrata’s approach was transparent and legal. It did not involve corrupt payments to W members or hidden manipulation. The line between legitimate political engagement and inappropriate interference in democratic processes is important but not always obvious.
5. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Apply the (ia)³ framework to Xstrata’s situation when the RSPT was announced. What were the key issues, actors, interests, arenas, information battles, and assets?
  2. Why was the MCA industry association a critical vehicle for Xstrata’s nonmarket strategy? What would have been different if Xstrata had lobbied alone?
  3. The mining industry did not convert majority public opposition to the RSPT – only to confusion and uncertainty. Was this sufficient to achieve their goal? What does this tell us about lobbying objectives?
  4. Should Xstrata accept Gillard’s offer to negotiate directly (excluding smaller miners)? What are the strategic trade-offs?
  5. Compare Xstrata’s lobbying strategy to Wal-Mart’s nonmarket response. What principles of effective nonmarket strategy does Xstrata illustrate that Wal-Mart failed to apply?
Session 05 · Part II Chiquita A & B – HBS 797015 / 701106

Globalization: Politics in an Interconnected World

Chiquita was legally right. The WTO agreed. And the company still went bankrupt. Why being “right” on the merits does not save you – and why timing in the issue life cycle is everything.

Governance Social Challenge Economic Development
$40Chiquita stock (1991)
$4.75Chiquita stock (1999)
45%EU share of Chiquita sales
$5.30Cost to transfer $1 to ACP
$5.6MLindner political donations
2001Chiquita bankruptcy filing

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
Keith & Carl Lindner
COO & Chairman, Chiquita
Father and son team running Chiquita. Carl was a major political donor ($5.6M to both parties from 1991–99). Lobbied Senator Dole, visited the White House, slept in the Lincoln bedroom. Bet heavily on the legal/political route – too late, not enough.
Senator Bob Dole
US Senate Ally
Went to bat vigorously for Chiquita. Tried to strip Colombia and Costa Rica of US aid unless they abandoned the Framework Agreement. Drew intense media scrutiny for his use of Lindner’s private jet. Eventually backed off as 1996 presidential campaign approached.
EU / European Commission
Regulatory Adversary
Enacted the 1993 common banana import regime favouring ACP (former colony) producers. Violated GATT and later WTO rules on 16 counts. But kept resisting – re-wrote the policy three times to avoid compliance while maintaining its substance.
Dole Food / Del Monte
Competitors with Better Strategy
While Chiquita fought the legal battle, Dole and Del Monte pursued market solutions: acquiring European distributors to obtain Category A import licences, investing in ACP production. They adapted. Chiquita’s financial weakness prevented this.
WTO (est. 1995)
International Institutional Arena
Ruled EU banana regime violated trade rules on 16 counts (1997). More powerful than GATT: binding decisions, appellate body, limited country self-intervention. But enforcement still required political will from the US – and the US had competing interests.
ACP Countries / EU Importers
Concentrated Beneficiaries
Former British, French, Dutch, Belgian colonies in Africa, Caribbean, Pacific. Received 0% tariff preferential access. The policy transferred $300M to them at a cost of $1.6B to EU consumers. The Lomé Convention (1975) – trade policy as foreign aid.

The EU Banana Policy

The Core Problem
EU BANANA IMPORT REGIME (July 1, 1993) EC Internal Production (Martinique, Guadeloupe, etc.) --> 0% tariff + Automatic licence (ZERO barrier) "Traditional" ACP Imports (Philippines, Caribbean, Africa) --> 0% tariff + Automatic licence (ZERO barrier) "Third Country" Imports (Latin America – Chiquita's source) --> 2 million ton annual QUOTA --> In-quota: ~100 ECU/mt + Category A licence required --> Out-quota: ~850 ECU/mt (effectively prohibitive) --> Category A licences: allocated to HISTORICAL EU distributors (i.e., Chiquita's European competitors) RESULT FOR CHIQUITA Chiquita lost 20-50% of EU market share almost overnight. The EU was 45% of Chiquita sales and its most profitable market. The policy was economically irrational (cost consumers $5.30 to transfer $1 to ACP) but politically rational (concentrated benefits to well-organised ACP states and EU importers).
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1. The Logic of Protectionism: Why Economically Irrational Policies Persist

The banana regime was economically absurd – it cost EU consumers $1.6B per year to transfer $300M to ACP producers (the rest went to European importers). Yet it survived for over a decade. Why?

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PROTECTIONISM Benefits CONCENTRATED (ACP countries, EU importers, specific constituencies) Costs DISPERSED (millions of EU consumers, each paying a little more) Concentrated benefits --> Strong incentive to organise and lobby Dispersed costs --> Weak incentive to organise and oppose Result: Politically stable even when economically irrational. Compare: Steel tariffs (Bush 2002) Concentrated benefits: 1,200 US steel firms in swing states (PA, OH, WV) Dispersed costs: US consumers and downstream industries WTO ruled against US, authorised $2.2B in retaliation Europeans targeted ORANGES (Florida, 26 electoral votes) -- not steel states Bush removed tariffs quickly. WTO changed the payoffs.
Core Political Economy PrincipleThe distribution of who wins and who loses – not just the aggregate economic effect – determines whether a policy will be politically sustainable. For firms, this means understanding the distributional map before crafting a nonmarket strategy.
The Political Economy of Trade Policy – Why Protectionism Persists
BENEFITS OF POLICY COSTS OF POLICY CONCENTRATED DISPERSED CONCENTRATED DISPERSED Private Interest Battles Both sides organised Intense lobbying Free Trade (Economically Optimal) Benefits spread widely Weak political support PROTECTIONISM Politically Stable Winners: organised, vocal Losers: dispersed, silent ← EU Banana regime lives here Status Quo Low salience No strong push either way
2. GATT vs. WTO: The Institutional Architecture of Trade
DimensionGATT (pre-1995)WTO (1995–present)
Decision processConsensus – any country could blockDispute Settlement Body; limited country self-intervention
EnforcementNon-binding; could be ignoredBinding; can authorise sanctions
AppealsCountries could intervene in own casesAppellate Body; max 60 days
SpeedYears; stalemate possibleFaster; firm deadlines
Key principleMost-Favoured Nation (MFN)MFN + National Treatment + binding enforcement
Banana case resultGATT panel ruled against EU (1993) – non-binding; EU ignored itWTO ruled against EU on 16 counts (1997) – EU still resisted for 2+ years
Even WTO Has LimitsThe WTO ruled for Chiquita in 1997. The EU re-wrote its banana policy three times while maintaining the discriminatory substance. It took US Section 301 sanctions ($191M tariffs on unrelated European goods) in 1999 to force real change. By then, Chiquita had two more years of losses ahead of it.
3. Chiquita’s Nonmarket Options and Why They Failed
OptionWhat Chiquita DidWhy It Failed
Lobby Washington directlySection 301 Petition (Sept 1994); hired Sen. Dole; Carl Lindner donated $5.6MClinton had competing interests (trade bill, Colombia drug programme). Dole backed off when 1996 presidential campaign threatened. “Bananas” weren’t a compelling US domestic interest.
Use GATTFiled 1993; GATT panel ruled in Chiquita’s favourNon-binding. EU ignored it. GATT had no enforcement mechanism.
Use WTOFormal dispute filed April 1996; WTO ruled for Chiquita May 1997EU appealed then modified policy rather than complying. US sanctions ($191M) finally forced partial resolution in 1999 – too late for Chiquita.
Acquire EU distributors (market strategy)Explored but unable to executeDepressed stock + high debt = no cash. Dole and Del Monte did this successfully while Chiquita was focused on the legal route.
Acquire ACP productionExplored but unable to executeSame financial constraints. Chiquita had doubled down on Latin America, the wrong bet.
The Core Failure: Issue Life Cycle TimingChiquita “woke up” to the EU banana policy in 1992 – after the policy had been building since 1988. By the time it filed its Section 301 petition (1994), the issue was already in Stages 3–4 (legislation/administration). Its influence was minimal. The central lesson is: proactive is always cheaper than reactive.
4. Key Takeaways: Lessons for Global Nonmarket Strategy
  1. Proactive beats reactive: Chiquita was asleep while EU policy built for 5 years. Monitor your nonmarket environment constantly, especially in your largest markets.
  2. Being right may not save you: Chiquita had a strong legal case. GATT and the WTO agreed. But the process was so slow and the EU so resistant that the company went bankrupt before justice arrived.
  3. Influence from outside is harder than inside: As a US company trying to influence EU policy, Chiquita had no allies, no staff, no reputation, and no relationships inside Brussels. The policy was designed to benefit European actors.
  4. Market and nonmarket options must be integrated: Dole and Del Monte used market strategies (acquiring EU distributors, buying ACP production) while Chiquita exhausted itself on the legal/political route. The market options would have reduced the nonmarket exposure.
  5. International institutions have limits: Even WTO rulings require political will to enforce. When US domestic interests don’t align (Clinton didn’t want to damage Colombia relations), even powerful instruments become blunt.
MARKET vs. NONMARKET RESPONSE MATRIX (Chiquita) Challenge: EU banana import regime (NONMARKET) MARKET response: + Acquire EU distributors (Category A licences) [Dole did this] + Invest in ACP production [Del Monte did this] + Diversify to other markets (Eastern Europe, Asia) [limited capacity] NONMARKET response: + Section 301 petition with USTR [Chiquita did this] + Lobby Congress via Senator Dole [Chiquita did this] + WTO dispute resolution [Chiquita did this] + Build coalitions with Latin American governments [partial success] Verdict: Chiquita over-indexed on NONMARKET, ignored MARKET responses. Financial weakness (high debt) prevented market flexibility.
5. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Using the issue life cycle, at what stage should Chiquita have started acting on the EU banana policy? What could it have done at each stage?
  2. Why is protectionism economically irrational but politically rational? Use the concentrated/dispersed benefits framework to explain why the EU banana regime survived for so long.
  3. Apply the (ia)³ framework to Chiquita’s situation in 1994. Who were its allies and adversaries? What arenas were available? What assets did it lack?
  4. Compare Chiquita’s strategy to Dole’s. What market options did Dole pursue that Chiquita ignored? What does this tell us about integrated strategy?
  5. If you were advising Chiquita in 1991 (before the EU policy took effect), what would your nonmarket strategy have been? Be specific about timing, arenas, and allies.
Session 06 · Part II Aguas del Aconquija – INSEAD INS552

International Investment Risks

Aguas failed because it priced water above what users could afford and what a new government could politically survive. The obsolescing bargain theory predicts exactly this kind of failure – and suggests how to avoid it.

Environment Governance Economic Development
+104%Water price hike on Day 1
30 yrConcession term granted
3 yrActual concession lasted
$300MICSID claim (initial)
$700MICSID claim (with interest)
10%Bill recovery rate at crisis peak

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
CGE / Vivendi (France)
Concessionaire, Lead Investor
Compagnie Générale des Eaux was the sole bidder for the Tucumán water concession. Negotiated closed-door: higher tariffs (+68%), lower investment (A$384.5M vs. higher original plan). Froze investments when negotiations began; seen by public as holding water hostage.
DYCASA (Spain)
Junior Partner in Consortium
Spanish partner in the consortium. Favoured immediate litigation from the outset when the government demanded renegotiation. Eventually reduced to a 5% stake. The disagreement between partners complicated the strategic response to the political crisis.
Ramón Ortega (Peronist)
Governor who Signed the Deal
A local rock star persuaded by the Peronist party to run for governor. Emulated Buenos Aires’s water privatisation in 1994. Negotiated with CGE under pressure (only one bidder), accepting higher tariffs in exchange for the contract. Did not win re-election.
Antonio Bussi
Governor who Cancelled the Deal
Army general with a grim human rights record, elected on a populist platform in July 1995 with promises to renegotiate water rates. Had little political choice but to deliver on this. Escalated the conflict, eventually rescinding the concession in August 1997.
Peronist Opposition
Political Opportunists
Peronists had signed the original concession but ruthlessly exploited the water crisis to embarrass the new governor. Were seen chanting anti-French slogans at street protests the same evening they were giving statesmanlike TV interviews. Classic nonmarket opportunism.
ICSID / World Bank
International Dispute Arena
International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes. CGE filed in December 1996 under the Franco-Argentine Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). ICSID ruled it had jurisdiction (BIT trumps local concession contract). Case was still pending in 2005 with $700M in claims.

The Obsolescing Bargain Theory

Core Framework
OBSOLESCING BARGAIN MODEL (Vernon, 1971) BEFORE INVESTMENT: Firm has bargaining power (capital, technology, expertise, choice of location) Host government needs the firm --> offers favourable terms, low taxes, long concessions, profit guarantees AFTER INVESTMENT: Assets become "sunk costs" -- firm can no longer leave easily Host government sees firm as captive -- renegotiation temptation grows New government or political crisis can trigger renegotiation or expropriation THE BARGAIN OBSOLESCES over time as power shifts from firm to host AGUAS APPLIED Before: Only one bidder --> CGE had maximum power Negotiated: +68% tariff, lower investment commitments After: Infrastructure sunk into ground, cannot be removed New governor (Bussi) elected promising to renegotiate Brown-water incident + price hike = political powder keg Peronists opportunistically exploited the issue Bargaining power had fully reversed RISK FORMULA Risk = Probability of adverse event x Expected Loss if it occurs Vulnerability factors: type of industry, ownership structure, political support, community relations, company reputation
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1. Why Did Aguas Fail? The Root Causes

The group report question: Name the main reason Aguas failed in Tucumán. What could Aguas have done to improve their chances of success?

The root cause was a catastrophic pricing and political miscalculation: Aguas implemented an immediate 104% water price increase (including new regulatory body levy) in one of Argentina’s poorest provinces, without having delivered any service improvements first. The timing could not have been worse – provincial elections were months away.

Failure FactorWhat HappenedCategory
Pricing strategy104% price hike effective Day 1; no service improvements yet deliveredFatal – triggered public outrage
Political risk ignoredSigned deal with outgoing Peronist governor; new election scheduled immediatelyFatal – no continuity of political support
Brown water incidentManganese + chlorine discoloured tap water (January 1996); made visible what was always a problemTriggering event – converted latent discontent into crisis
Sole bidder leverage misusedCGE negotiated closed-door for higher tariffs and lower investment; seen as exploiting weak governmentLegitimacy problem – corruption rumours, never refuted
Frozen investment responseWhen renegotiation demanded, CGE froze further investmentsReinforced public narrative: “company holding water hostage”
Regulatory body filled by oppositionERSACT staffed by former DIPOS employees and union members with political connectionsRegulator became an opponent, not a neutral arbiter
Water Is DifferentAs the case notes: “Water is a gift from God.” “Yes, but he forgot to lay the pipes.” Water is a natural monopoly with intense social/moral salience. No competition is possible. Raising prices on a natural monopoly providing a survival good is politically explosive everywhere, but especially in a poor province.
2. What Could Aguas Have Done Differently?
StageRecommended ActionRationale
Before signingDeeper political risk assessment; scenario plan for electoral change; restructure contract for phased price increases tied to service milestonesObsolescing bargain is predictable – build protections into the original contract
Contract designLink price increases to verified service improvements; include political risk insurance; require stronger federal government guarantees (not just provincial)Reduces probability of renegotiation by aligning company performance with public benefit
Day 1 of operationPhase price increases – small increases tied to visible improvements (fix brown water first); invest in community relations; stakeholder engagement with local community leadersPublic legitimacy is the only sustainable basis for a natural monopoly; early goodwill is insurance
Election riskEngage all major political parties before the election; build cross-party support for the concessionContract signed with one party is vulnerable when parties change; all parties should feel ownership
During crisisMaintain service and investment; do not freeze; use federal government and World Bank as mediators earlier; consider concessions on tariff to preserve credibilityFreezing investments confirmed the hostile narrative; service continuation builds goodwill
The Deeper LessonA natural monopoly providing an essential service to poor people must operate with exceptional sensitivity to affordability and public legitimacy. When an investment depends entirely on political will to be profitable, the investment IS the political relationship. CGE treated it as a contract, not a partnership.
3. Political Risk Framework: Threats and Vulnerabilities
Risk DimensionAguas AssessmentRed Flag?
Type of industryWater – natural monopoly, essential service, strategic, politically sensitiveMaximum sensitivity
Type of investmentConcession contract; 30-year time horizon; massive sunk costs in infrastructureLong horizon = more exposure to political change
Ownership structureFrench MNC + Spanish partner; no local partners in the consortiumNo local partners = no local political protection
Political supportSupport from outgoing Peronist governor only; incoming governor was oppositionSingle-party support with election imminent
Company reputationSole bidder; closed-door negotiations; corruption rumours circulatedLegitimacy deficit from day one
Stakeholder relationsNo community engagement; unions and DIPOS employees hostileRegulator became an opponent
Risk = Probability x Expected LossEvery single risk dimension was red. Aguas had maximum vulnerability and, because it was the sole bidder with unique assets (the contract), maximum expected loss if the political situation deteriorated. A rigorous pre-investment risk assessment using this framework should have triggered either contract restructuring or non-investment.
Reading: The Obsolescing Bargain Today – From OBM to Political Bargaining Model

Vernon’s original Obsolescing Bargain Model (OBM) was developed in the 1970s, primarily for natural resource MNCs in developing countries. Two important readings update and extend it: Ramamurti (2001) argues the OBM needs revision for the modern era, while Eden, Lenway & Schuler (AIB 2004) propose replacing it with a richer Political Bargaining Model (PBM).

FROM OBSOLESCING BARGAIN TO POLITICAL BARGAINING MODEL THE ORIGINAL OBM (Vernon, 1971): - Applies primarily to NATURAL RESOURCE and MANUFACTURING MNCs - Assumes goals are CONFLICTING (MNE vs Host Country) - Bargain ALWAYS obsolesces after investment (one-directional) - Power shifts deterministically from MNE to HC over time - HC learns from MNE; technology transfers; assets become local WHY OBM NEEDS UPDATING (Ramamurti 2001): - Modern FDI is often SERVICE and KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE (software, finance, consulting) – harder to expropriate - BITs and ICSID have shifted the balance back toward MNEs - Emerging market competition for FDI (locational tournaments) gives MNEs more leverage even after investment - Knowledge-based assets are TACIT and non-transferable (the HC cannot learn AI chip design by observing Apple) THE POLITICAL BARGAINING MODEL (Eden/Lenway/Schuler 2004): - MNE-HC relationship is ITERATIVE, not one-shot - Goals are often COOPERATIVE not conflicting (both want growth) - Bargaining covers a RANGE OF ISSUES (taxes, labour, environment, IP protection) not just initial entry terms - RELATIVE RESOURCES of both parties matter continuously: MNE resources: property-based FSAs (patents, brand), tacit FSAs (management, culture), relational resources (political ties) HC resources: location-bound CSAs (natural resources, market size, skilled labour, infrastructure) - OBM = SPECIAL CASE of PBM (applies when natural resources, developing country, high asset specificity)
OBM AssumptionPBM UpdateReal-World Example
Bargain always obsolesces post-investmentMay not obsolesce if MNE’s tacit/relational resources remain valuableApple’s design and AI capabilities cannot be transferred to a host government
HC goals always conflictual with MNEHC and MNE often cooperate to attract investment vs. rival locationsCountries compete to host manufacturing; Singapore actively courts tech firms
Power shifts deterministically to HCPower depends on ongoing relative bargaining resources of both partiesPost-RSPT: Australia needed Xstrata’s investment; both sides retained leverage
One-shot entry negotiationContinuous multi-issue negotiation across taxes, labour, IP, environmentFIJI Water’s ongoing renegotiation of water extraction taxes is a PBM dynamic
Exam ApplicationFor modern knowledge-intensive MNCs (Apple, Google), the classic OBM overstates how much bargaining power shifts to the host country post-investment. The PBM is more accurate: power depends on the ongoing relative value of each party’s resources. Apple’s EU crisis (Session 14) is a PBM dynamic – a multi-issue iterative negotiation, not a one-shot obsolescence.
4. ICSID and the Bilateral Investment Treaty Framework

When local political solutions failed, Aguas turned to international arbitration. The case illustrates both the power and limits of the ICSID framework for investor protection.

Legal InstrumentProvisionOutcome in Aguas Case
Concession Contract, Art 16(4)Disputes go to local Tucumán courts onlyArgentina argued this excluded ICSID jurisdiction
Franco-Argentine BIT, Art 8(2)Investment disputes go to ICSID if unresolved in 6 monthsICSID ruled BIT (international treaty) supersedes local contract
ICSID Convention, Art 25ICSID has jurisdiction over investment disputes between state and foreign nationalJurisdiction confirmed; Argentina had not consented but BIT created that consent
ICSID substantive rulingVivendi failed to use national courts first – claim rejectedVivendi filed annulment; ICSID rare reversal in 2002 (only 4 precedents)
The BIT Framework’s SignificanceArgentina had signed over 60 bilateral investment treaties. The Aguas case established that BITs allow private companies to sue sovereign governments through international arbitration – bypassing national courts. By 2005, 38 multinationals were suing Argentina (mostly over the 2002 peso devaluation). This is now a standard tool for protecting FDI.
5. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Apply the Obsolescing Bargain model to the Aguas case. At what point did CGE’s bargaining power peak? When and why did it shift to the government?
  2. What was the main reason Aguas failed in Tucumán? Was it primarily a market failure, a political failure, or a management failure? Justify your answer.
  3. Using the political risk framework (Risk = Probability x Expected Loss), assess the risk Aguas faced before signing the concession. Were these risks identifiable in advance?
  4. What could CGE have done differently at the contract design stage to reduce its vulnerability? Consider the concession terms, pricing structure, partner selection, and government guarantees.
  5. Compare the Aguas case to Xstrata (Session 4). Both faced hostile governments. Why was Xstrata’s nonmarket response more effective than Aguas’s?
Session 07 · Part III Nike – HBS 700047

NGOs, Boycotts, and Social Movements

Nike’s labour scandal is the defining case of private politics – how NGOs and activists shape de-facto rules of the global economy without passing a single law. Market assets (brand, outsourcing) became catastrophic nonmarket liabilities.

Social Challenge Governance
$90Retail price, Nike shoe
$3.37Labour cost per shoe
$1.67Daily wage, Vietnam factory
40%US athletic footwear market share
−69%Earnings fall FY1998
$7.2MUNC endorsement deal that sparked protests

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
Phil Knight
Co-founder & CEO, Nike
Architect of the virtual corporation model – outsource manufacturing, pour savings into marketing. Initially dismissive of labour critics: “We don’t make shoes.” Humbled by 1998 earnings collapse. May 1998 speech to National Press Club marked a genuine turning point.
Jeff Ballinger
Labour Activist – Original Critic
A labour activist since high school who spent years in Indonesia documenting Nike contractor abuses. Published a seminal 1992 report with per-worker wage data alongside Nike profit margins. The original gadfly who started the campaign and gave it moral force and factual grounding.
Student Activists / UNITE!
Campus Movement
Students at Duke, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Michigan and 100+ other universities took over buildings in 1998–99 to protest sweatshop conditions. Organised by unions (UNITE!, AFL-CIO). Targeted Nike’s university endorsement deals – a market asset that became a nonmarket vulnerability.
Fair Labor Association (FLA)
Industry Self-Regulation Body
Emerged from Clinton’s Apparel Industry Partnership. Nike co-founded it. Required member companies to comply with a code of conduct and submit to third-party audits. Accepted by some NGOs, rejected by others who called it “corporate cover” due to factory pre-notification of audits.
Indonesian/Vietnamese Workers
Diffuse Victims
$1.67/day in Vietnam. 15-hour overtime shifts. Toxic chemical exposure (respiratory ailments from poor ventilation). Yet a Dartmouth study found most workers saved wages and saw factory work as upward mobility. The economic debate was real – but the moral narrative was what moved public opinion.
Media / Doonesbury
Nonmarket Amplifiers
When Doonesbury ran a multi-strip cartoon series linking Nike to underage workers, the issue went fully mainstream. The leaked Ernst & Young internal audit (revealing respiratory ailments, 15-hour shifts) was the most damaging single document – Nike’s own monitoring system made it worse by being disclosed.

Analysis

Session Content
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1. How Nike’s Market Strategy Created Nonmarket Liability

Nike’s strategy was elegant: outsource all manufacturing to low-cost Asian contractors, pour savings into celebrity marketing, build an invincible brand. This worked brilliantly in the market – 40% US market share, $9B in revenues by the late 1990s. But it created two fatal nonmarket vulnerabilities:

Market AssetHow It Became a Nonmarket Liability
Premium brand image (Just Do It, Jordan, Woods)High brand visibility = high scrutiny. “When I was growing up, rooting for the Yankees was like rooting for US Steel. Today, rooting for Nike is like rooting for Microsoft.” Fame made Nike a symbol of corporate power – and a target.
Outsourced manufacturing (zero in-house production)Nike repeatedly claimed “we don’t make shoes” to deny responsibility for contractor labour practices. This was legally defensible but morally incoherent – activists correctly argued that Nike set the production requirements that drove the conditions. Denial made the crisis worse.
University endorsement deals ($7.2M to UNC alone)Nike relied on campuses as both a sales channel and a brand identity anchor. Student activists weaponised this dependency: “pull the Nike contract or we boycott the university.” The universities were far more sensitive to student pressure than to Nike revenue.
80% of shoes sold for fashion (not athletic use)Fashion consumers are trend-driven and fickle. When Nike’s image shifted from “cool” to “exploitative,” adidas, New Balance, and Airwalk captured the teen trendsetters almost overnight. Brand image is both the core asset and the core vulnerability.
The Visibility-Liability ParadoxThe more successful Nike became, the bigger the nonmarket target on its back. This is a structural dynamic that applies to any dominant brand: high market visibility creates high nonmarket accountability. Companies that become symbols of capitalism become symbols of its failures. Nike was not the worst offender on labour – it was just the most visible.
2. Private Politics and the Anatomy of an Activist Campaign

Private politics refers to NGO and activist campaigns that attempt to change corporate behaviour directly – without passing through government or legislation. The goal is to make the cost of continued behaviour exceed the cost of change. The Nike campaign is the textbook model.

ANATOMY OF THE NIKE ACTIVIST CAMPAIGN Phase 1 – DOCUMENTATION (1991-1992) Jeff Ballinger publishes Indonesian wage data vs. Nike margins AFL-CIO Asian-American Free Labor Association critical report Indonesian newspapers run stories on factory abuses Phase 2 – ESCALATION (1993-1996) Stories move from labour publications to Time, Business Week Life magazine photo of Pakistani child stitching Nike footballs Doonesbury cartoon series reaches mainstream audiences Nike’s defensive denial (“we don’t make shoes”) backfires Phase 3 – CAMPUS MOBILISATION (1997-1999) Student protests at 100+ universities; building takeovers Organized by UNITE! and AFL-CIO Targeted Nike’s university endorsement deals ($7.2M at UNC) James Keady (soccer coach) publicly quits rather than wear swoosh Phase 4 – MARKET IMPACT (1998) Earnings fall 69% in FY1998 (partly Asian currency crisis) Adidas, New Balance triple advertising; capture teen market Knight admits: “Nike product has become synonymous with slave wages, forced overtime, and arbitrary abuse” Phase 5 – STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT (1998+) Knight announces sweeping reforms at National Press Club Nike co-founds Fair Labor Association (FLA) Expands factory monitoring; adopts US OSHA clean air standards Trains managers; partners with National University of Vietnam
Privatisation of Global GovernanceNike’s case illustrates a broader trend: NGOs and activists increasingly shape the de-facto rules of the global economy in areas where governments cannot or do not act. When international labour law doesn’t apply across borders, civil society applies social pressure directly to the firm. This is the “privatisation of global governance.”
3. Turning Gadflies into Allies – The Strategic Framework

The article “Turning Gadflies into Allies” (HBS R0402J) offers the strategic antidote to the defensive posture Nike initially took. The core argument: NGO critics are a source of valuable intelligence and can be converted from adversaries to strategic partners if engaged proactively.

Defensive Approach (Nike initially)Strategic Engagement (Nike eventually)
“We don’t make shoes” – deny responsibilityAccept supply chain responsibility; audit proactively
Treat NGO critics as enemies to discreditMeet with NGOs; establish stakeholder councils
React to media exposés after they are publishedInternal monitoring to find problems before they leak
Engage activists only under market pressureIdentify issues before they reach the public arena
Independent monitoring = Ernst & Young (hired by Nike)Independent monitoring = genuine external parties not on corporate payroll
STRATEGIC CSR APPROACH FOR NIKE (in hindsight) Step 1: Identify points of intersection between firm and society - How does Nike affect society? (labour conditions, wages, safety) - How does society affect Nike? (brand perception, campus sales) Step 2: Identify issues of direct relevance to competitive advantage - Nike’s key asset: positive brand image - Anything that damages reputation is a strategic threat - Labour controversy clearly meets that threshold Step 3: Engage NGOs and opinion leaders BEFORE crisis - Meet with Ballinger in 1991, not after Doonesbury in 1997 - Stakeholder councils bring issues to you first, not to media Step 4: Take steps that improve both labour conditions AND market position - Higher health/safety standards = healthier/more productive workers - Credible monitoring = insurance against reputational attack
4. The “Nike Moment” – Lessons for All Brands

The Nike case gave the business world a new concept: the “Nike moment” – the tipping point when accumulated negative publicity around supply chain practices reaches critical mass and forces strategic rethinking. An FLA auditor described Apple’s Foxconn crisis (2012) as Apple’s “Nike moment.”

PrincipleWhat It MeansNike Example
Supply chain = your responsibilityCompanies are increasingly held responsible for all activities throughout their supply chains, not just their own operationsNike’s contractor factories were legally separate; morally they were Nike
NGOs shape de-facto standardsWhere governments cannot reach (global supply chains), NGOs set the standards through public pressureFLA, Workers Rights Consortium – private organisations setting global labour norms
Proactive > reactiveIssue management is far cheaper early in the life cycle. Nike’s reforms in 1998 cost far more than proactive engagement in 1992 would have$45M restructuring charges; years of brand damage vs. early stakeholder dialogue
Denial amplifies crisisWhen the Ernst & Young audit leaked, Nike spokesman said problems “no longer existed.” This made headlines. Honest engagement would have been far less damaging“This shows our monitoring works” – while workers had respiratory ailments
5. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Apply the (ia)³ framework to Nike in 1994. Who were the key actors? What arenas were available to them? What information shaped the campaign? What assets did Nike have – and which were actually liabilities?
  2. How does the Nike case illustrate the concept of “private politics”? What distinguishes private politics from public politics?
  3. What is the “visibility-liability paradox”? Can you think of other companies (besides Apple/Foxconn) that have experienced their “Nike moment”?
  4. Was Nike’s outsourcing model inherently incompatible with responsible labour practices? Or was it a management failure rather than a structural one?
  5. Using the “Turning Gadflies into Allies” framework, what should Nike have done in 1991 when Jeff Ballinger published his first report? Be specific about stakeholder engagement, monitoring design, and public communications.
Session 08 · Part III PepsiCo – Ivey W21312

Corporate Social Responsibility

PepsiCo’s obesity dilemma asks the hardest CSR question: can a company whose core product contributes to a societal problem genuinely become a force for good? And is there a business case for trying?

Environment Governance Social Challenge Economic Development
$70.4BPepsiCo revenue (2020)
267KEmployees worldwide
200+Countries with PepsiCo products
42%US adults classified obese (2018)
$3.7MPepsiCo lobbying spend (2020)
$6MPepsiCo+Coke funded CA soda tax block

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
Indra Nooyi
CEO, PepsiCo (2006–2018)
“Performance with Purpose” – her signature strategy arguing that sustainability and profitability are complementary, not in conflict. Changed PepsiCo’s slogan from “Fun for you” to “Better for you” and “Good for you.” Shareholders and some critics were never fully convinced.
Ramon Laguarta
CEO, PepsiCo (2018–present)
Continued Nooyi’s sustainability direction. Set eight ambitious goals in 2019 on sugar reduction, sodium limits, saturated fat targets, and responsible advertising to children. PepsiCo’s commitment continued, but the core products didn’t fundamentally change.
Health NGOs / Nutritionists
Primary Critics
Argued PepsiCo’s reforms were “nutriwashing” – superficial changes designed to shift blame rather than fundamentally alter products. Pointed to lobbying (blocking soda taxes, opposing sugar labelling) as evidence that PepsiCo’s nonmarket strategy contradicted its CSR rhetoric.
Shareholders
Conflicted Stakeholders
The group most sceptical of Nooyi’s “Performance with Purpose” strategy. Concerned that pivoting toward healthier products would cannibalize the high-margin core business. PepsiCo’s stock underperformed during the early years of the strategy – validating shareholder concern in the short term.
Governments / Regulators
Institutional Threat & Opportunity
Sugar taxes, advertising restrictions, portion limits – the regulatory threat that gave PepsiCo’s CSR strategy its business logic: “Don’t become tobacco.” Between 2011 and 2015, PepsiCo opposed 28 health-related bills. Self-regulation as a defensive shield against harder regulation.
Consumers
The Paradox
Said they wanted healthier options; continued buying Doritos and Pepsi. Campbell’s low-sodium soup failed despite consumer surveys saying they wanted less sodium – taste buds conditioned by decades of processing. The “say-do gap” in consumer behaviour is one of PepsiCo’s most convenient shields.

Core Frameworks

Porter & Kramer
From Responsive CSR to Creating Shared Value – The Spectrum
Do No Harm Responsive CSR Strategic CSR Creating Shared Value Legal compliance Avoid harm Philanthropy Community programs Mitigate harms Reinforce competitive context; differentiation CSR as investment Economic + social value simultaneously Integral to profit PepsiCo currently
CSR SPECTRUM – PORTER & KRAMER (HBS R0612D) LEVEL 1: RESPONSIVE CSR (Cost Centre) "Good citizenship" -- do the minimum expected of any company Mitigate harms from business activities Give back through philanthropy, community investment Example: PepsiCo Gatorade Play It Forward community programme Risk: Easily dismissed as PR; no competitive advantage LEVEL 2: STRATEGIC CSR (Capability Builder) Philanthropy and initiatives that reinforce competitive context Improve shared value along the value chain Use social issues to create competitive differentiation Example: PepsiCo R&D into healthier products as market opportunity CSR vs. CREATING SHARED VALUE (CSV) – Porter & Kramer (HBS R1101C) CSR CSV Value = doing good Value = economic + social gains combined Citizenship, charity Joint company + community value creation Responds to pressure Integral to competitive strategy Separate from profit Integral to profit maximisation "Diminishes value" "Expands total pool of value" THE KEY TEST: Does the initiative create genuine competitive advantage? Or is it a cost incurred to manage nonmarket pressure?
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1. PepsiCo’s Nonmarket Risks: Assessment

The group report question: Critically evaluate the non-market risks PepsiCo faces. Are they large or small? With this evaluation, assess PepsiCo’s non-market strategy as a means to solve these risks.

Nonmarket RiskProbabilityExpected LossSeverity
Sugar/soda taxes (municipal, national)Medium – already enacted in some cities/countriesHigh – direct impact on core product volumeHIGH
Advertising restrictions (to children)Medium – strong NGO pressure, some legislationMedium – children are key lifetime-consumer acquisition channelMEDIUM-HIGH
Obesity litigation (“the tobacco scenario”)Low currently – courts still favouring “personal responsibility”Very high – existential if tobacco precedent appliesMEDIUM
Reputational damage from obesity associationHigh – already occurring; media coverage extensiveMedium – brand is resilient but slowly erodingMEDIUM-HIGH
Market shift to healthy productsGrowing – organic sales up 5% YoY; but small absolute shareLow-medium – core products still dominantLOW-MEDIUM
NGO/activist campaignsHigh – ongoing; school bans, sugar tax coalitionsMedium – no single campaign has caused earnings collapseMEDIUM
The “Don’t Become Tobacco” RiskTobacco companies were profitable for decades despite health evidence – until class-action lawsuits and government settlements imposed existential costs. Analysts increasingly applied this analogy to food companies. The question was not if but when the legal/regulatory tide would turn. PepsiCo’s CSR strategy can be read as a hedge against this scenario.
2. PepsiCo’s Nonmarket Strategy: Does It Work?
Strategic ActionNonmarket GoalHonest Assessment
“Fun for you / Better for you / Good for you” product tiersSignal portfolio shift; reduce reputational riskPositive signal, but core “Fun for you” products still dominate revenues
Smartspot programme; SmartChoices logoHelp consumers identify healthier options; preempt mandatory labellingBackfired – Froot Loops (41% sugar) was SmartChoice certified; called “nutriwashing”
“Move First” exercise campaignShift blame from food intake to physical activityScientifically misleading; exercise alone cannot offset 1,390 daily excess calories; seen as deflection
Acquisition of healthy brands (Naked Juice, SodaStream, KeVita, Bare Snacks)Diversify into growing health segment; hedge against core portfolio declineGenuine market response; still small fraction of revenue
R&D budget +45% since 2011; Nutrition Greenhouse AcceleratorInnovation into healthier products; first-mover advantageGenuine investment; results still incremental rather than radical
Lobbying: $6M to block CA soda taxes; opposed 28 health bills (2011–15)Maintain political protection for core business modelDirectly contradicts CSR messaging; critics call it the “real” strategy
The Credibility GapPepsiCo cannot simultaneously run “Performance with Purpose” and spend $6M blocking the soda taxes it should logically support if it genuinely believes its products harm health. This contradiction – visible CSR + aggressive political opposition to health regulation – is the central weakness of PepsiCo’s nonmarket strategy. It invites the “nutriwashing” charge and undermines trust with exactly the NGOs and regulators it needs to engage.
3. Three Strategic Options for PepsiCo
OptionDescriptionMarket UpsideNonmarket Risk
1. Do nothingMaximise cash from existing portfolio; ignore health criticsHigh short-term margins; no transition costsAccelerates “tobacco scenario”; activist campaigns intensify; eventual regulation far harsher
2. Slow change (current path)Gradually shift portfolio; acquire healthy brands; R&D investment; maintain lobbyingHedges bets; maintains core revenues; signals intent to investorsCredibility gap persists; “nutriwashing” label sticks; regulators remain hostile
3. Bold pivotSet a concrete 10-year target to shift majority of revenues to “Good for you” products; stop opposing health regulations; align lobbying with stated valuesFirst-mover advantage in growing health market; regulatory goodwill; NGO alliancesHighest credibility; lowest long-term regulatory risk
The CSV QuestionThe “bold pivot” is the only option that genuinely creates shared value – combining economic opportunity (health food market growth) with social benefit (reduced obesity). Options 1 and 2 are at best strategic CSR; Option 3 is CSV. But the transition costs are real: billions in R&D, years of lower margins, uncertain consumer demand. This is why the bold pivot is rarely chosen by incumbents.
4. CSR vs. CSV: The Analytical Framework Applied
PepsiCo InitiativeCSR or CSV?Why
Gatorade community sports programmesStrategic CSRBrand reinforcement + community benefit; not core value chain change
Smartspot / green symbols on packagingResponsive CSR / NutriwashingDefensive move to manage pressure; not genuine product improvement
R&D into lower-sugar formulationsStrategic CSR / approaching CSVGenuine product improvement; potential competitive differentiation
Acquisition of Bare Snacks, KeVitaCSV (if scaled)Creates new market revenue + healthier consumer outcomes; competitive advantage
Lobbying against soda taxesAnti-CSRProtects core business at expense of public health; contradicts stated CSR goals
Nutrition Greenhouse AcceleratorStrategic CSR / nascent CSVSupports innovation ecosystem; small scale; genuine commitment signal
5. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Critically evaluate the non-market risks PepsiCo faces. Using Risk = Probability x Expected Loss, rank them from most to least severe. Is the “tobacco scenario” a realistic threat?
  2. Is PepsiCo’s “Performance with Purpose” strategy genuine CSV or sophisticated CSR? Use the Porter & Kramer framework to support your argument.
  3. What is “nutriwashing”? Identify two specific PepsiCo initiatives that could be characterised this way. What makes them vulnerable to this criticism?
  4. Can a company whose core product contributes to a societal problem ever have a genuinely credible CSR strategy? Under what conditions could PepsiCo build authentic credibility?
  5. What should PepsiCo’s CEO do? Evaluate all three strategic options (do nothing, slow change, bold pivot) and make a recommendation with supporting rationale.
Session 09 · Part III BP – STR010137

Sustainability as Strategy

BP’s “Beyond Petroleum” campaign was a masterclass in nonmarket differentiation – until operational decisions made the brand promise a liability instead of an asset. Greater visibility equals greater accountability when things go wrong.

Environment Governance Social Challenge
1997Stanford speech: Browne breaks ranks
10%CO2 reduction pledge by 2010
$19.3BBP profit 2005
15Deaths, Texas City refinery 2005
11Deaths, Deepwater Horizon 2010
#1Environmental ranking by NGOs & media (2001)

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
John Browne
CEO, BP (1995–2007)
The architect of “Beyond Petroleum.” In 1997 Stanford speech he acknowledged climate change reality and pledged 10% CO2 reduction – breaking ranks with the entire oil industry. His framing: “This was a business decision, a cold hard way of getting competitive advantage by taking a distinctive position.”
Dick Olver
BP Managing Director, E&P
Explicitly framed the “Beyond Petroleum” strategy in competitive rather than ethical terms – differentiating from rivals to gain advantage. Crucial insight: the strategy was never primarily about being good; it was about being seen as better than Exxon to attract customers, talent, and investors.
Tony Hayward
CEO, BP (2007–2010)
Inherited Browne’s brand and a culture that had been cutting costs in operations while maintaining the green image. His response to the Gulf oil spill (“I would like my life back”) became a symbol of corporate tone-deafness. Resigned in July 2010. BP’s dilemma was his problem to solve – and he didn’t.
Environmental NGOs
Initial Allies → Vindicated Critics
BP was ranked #1 in the FT’s environmental league by NGOs and media in 2001 – ahead of the Body Shop and even Greenpeace. This unprecedented NGO endorsement was BP’s greatest nonmarket asset. It became a liability when operational failures revealed the gap between brand and reality.
Baker Panel (James A. Baker III)
Independent Safety Review
In 2007, the independent panel appointed by BP painted a “scathing portrait of cultural failure,” finding that BP put profits before safety and operations. This internal-to-external revelation was the turning point – the gap between BP’s green image and its operational culture was exposed definitively.
Exxon / Shell / Competitors
Strategic Contrast
Exxon’s explicit denial of climate science gave BP its differentiation opportunity. BP positioned itself as the enlightened alternative. But while Exxon was honest about its denial, BP was making operational decisions (cutting safety budgets at Texas City) that contradicted its public positioning.

BP’s Strategic Logic

Why “Beyond Petroleum”?
BP’s “BEYOND PETROLEUM” – STRATEGIC RATIONALE MARKET GOALS: 1. Brand differentiation: attract customers who care about environment 2. Talent attraction: recruit engineers who want to work for a “good” company 3. Investor relations: ESG-conscious institutional investors (growing pool) 4. Technology hedge: invest in alternatives before oil revenues decline NONMARKET GOALS: 5. Regulation: influence energy policy to favour a greener oil major 6. NGO relations: convert critics into allies (as with Nike/gadfly strategy) 7. Political access: be the oil company governments want to work with 8. Competitive asymmetry: make environmental standards costly for less prepared rivals (e.g., Exxon forced to respond to higher bar) THE STRATEGIC BET: - Energy transition is coming; being first = competitive advantage - NGOs and governments will reward green leaders with preferential treatment - Brand premium can be extracted from environmentally conscious consumers - Moral leadership position creates political capital for future use WHAT WENT WRONG: - Operational culture never matched the brand promise - Cost-cutting in refineries and platforms undermined safety - Internal culture: “profits before safety” (Baker Panel, 2007) - Brand raised expectations that operations could not fulfil
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1. Good Idea, Bad Execution – or Bad Idea from the Start?

The group report question: Assess the failure of BP’s “beyond petroleum” campaign. Was it a good idea and bad execution or a bad idea and doomed to fail? Why?

PositionArguments ForArguments Against
Good idea, bad executionStrategy achieved real results: #1 environmental ranking, NGO alliances, carbon reduction targets met early. If operations had aligned with brand, the strategy could have worked. Browne was right that energy transition was coming.Any strategy that requires the entire operational culture to change is inherently fragile. The brand raised the bar so high that any operational failure was catastrophically amplified. Brand credibility is easily destroyed but takes years to build.
Bad idea, doomed to failOil companies cannot escape their core business. “Beyond petroleum” was a contradiction: 95%+ of revenues still came from oil and gas. The brand promise could never be sustained without a genuine business model transformation.Competitors (Shell, Total) also pursued ESG strategies with more operational consistency and avoided BP-scale disasters. The problem was execution, not concept.
Course VerdictThe course materials frame it as: “A normal business decision – cutting costs – becomes a major problem because it reveals something about the company that clashes with its new (nonmarket) image.” This suggests the strategy was conceptually sound but operationally betrayed. The failure was in the gap between brand and culture – an execution failure, not a strategic one. But the scale of that gap was itself a strategic error.
2. Timeline: From Visionary to Villain
YearEventNonmarket Effect
1997Browne Stanford speech: acknowledges climate change, pledges 10% CO2 cut by 2010Breaks with oil industry consensus; first-mover NGO credibility
2000“Beyond Petroleum” rebrand; new logo; major ad campaignBrand repositioning; sunflower logo becomes iconic; talent magnet
2001FT environmental league: BP ranked #1 by NGOs and media (above Body Shop, Greenpeace)Peak nonmarket credibility; NGO allies; political access premium
2001–06Strong financial performance ($19.3B profit in 2005; $22.3B in 2006)Market strategy working; strategy appears validated
2005Texas City refinery explosion: 15 workers killedFirst crack in brand promise; internal safety culture exposed
2006Alaska pipeline corrosion: 267,000 gallons spilledSecond operational failure; pattern emerging; shares fall
2007Baker Panel report: “scathing portrait of cultural failure; profits before safety”Internal failure publicly documented; NGO allies begin distancing
2010Deepwater Horizon: 11 deaths, largest oil spill in US historyCatastrophic; brand destroyed; Hayward “I want my life back”; CEO resigns
3. The Visibility-Liability Paradox Applied to BP

BP’s story is a perfect illustration of the visibility-liability paradox we first saw with Nike – but applied to ESG strategy rather than labour practices.

VISIBILITY-LIABILITY PARADOX Phase 1: BP differentiates by claiming ESG leadership -> Gains NGO alliances, brand premium, political access -> NGO endorsement (FT 2001 ranking) = peak nonmarket asset Phase 2: Higher expectations are set by the brand promise -> Stakeholders apply “green standard” to evaluate ALL BP decisions -> Any operational failure is now judged against the green promise -> Competitors can operate with lower standards with less scrutiny Phase 3: Operational failures revealed -> Texas City 2005: judged against “Beyond Petroleum” standard -> Costs-cutting that would be normal business at Exxon becomes “betrayal of the green promise” at BP -> NGO allies feel vindicated in abandoning BP (double credibility hit) Phase 4: Brand works AGAINST BP -> Deepwater Horizon framed as “proof” the green brand was a lie -> Reputation: from most admired to most reviled in five years -> “Greater visibility = greater accountability when things go wrong” LESSON: CSR activities MUST be compatible with your business model. If the brand promise cannot be backed by operational reality, it creates more nonmarket risk than it resolves.
The Critical LessonEnvironmentalists were dismayed by BP’s safety failures. Industry critics of BP’s sustainability initiative felt vindicated. This double backlash – losing both your allies AND your critics – is the worst possible nonmarket outcome. It only happens when there is a fundamental gap between brand positioning and operational behaviour.
4. ESG Strategy – When Does It Work?

The BP case should not be read as evidence that ESG strategy is always wrong. It is evidence that disconnected ESG strategy is dangerous. Comparing BP to the integrated strategy cases from earlier sessions:

CompanyESG PositioningOperational Alignment?Outcome
Toyota (Prius)Green technology; hybrid vehiclesYes – R&D actually delivered the product; nonmarket claim backed by market productNonmarket reinforced market; $340M tax credit boost
StarbucksFair trade sourcing; worker benefitsYes – sourcing practices actually changed; worker benefits realNonmarket reinforces premium brand positioning
BP“Beyond Petroleum” environmental leaderNo – cost-cutting in safety contradicted the brand; culture never changedNonmarket promise became a liability when operations failed
PepsiCo“Performance with Purpose”Partial – some genuine product shifts; core portfolio unchanged; lobbying contradicts claimsCredibility gap; risk of “nutriwashing” label
The RuleESG strategy creates value when: (1) the social position is authentic and operationally backed; (2) it creates genuine competitive differentiation; and (3) it anticipates future regulatory standards. It destroys value when it is a brand layer applied over unchanged operations – because the higher expectations it creates make every failure more costly.
The Visibility-Liability Paradox – Why Brand Success Amplifies Nonmarket Risk
Market Visibility / Brand Success Nonmarket Accountability Low High Low High Small firm Wal-Mart (ignored until S3-4) Nike “Just Do It” = big target BP “Beyond Petroleum” Higher position = any failure is disproportionately amplified
5. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Was BP’s “Beyond Petroleum” campaign a good idea with bad execution, or a bad idea doomed to fail? Build a structured argument for one position, anticipating the strongest counterargument.
  2. Explain the visibility-liability paradox. How does it apply to BP? Can you identify one other company (not from this course) where a similar dynamic played out?
  3. Dick Olver said the strategy was “a cold hard way of getting competitive advantage.” If BP’s goal was purely competitive (not ethical), does that change your evaluation of the strategy’s failure?
  4. Compare BP’s ESG strategy to Toyota’s Prius strategy. What made Toyota’s nonmarket positioning sustainable while BP’s was not?
  5. What should Tony Hayward have done when he became CEO in 2007, given the Baker Panel’s findings? Outline a specific nonmarket strategy to address the emerging credibility gap before Deepwater Horizon.
Tools

Barber's Playbook

A blueprint for cracking any nonmarket strategy exam case – synthesising every framework and case lesson from this course into a repeatable analytical process.

The Exam PromptEvery BGS exam follows the same structure: read a hypothetical case about a firm’s nonmarket issues, then (1) rank the issues from most severe to least severe and explain your reasoning, and (2) construct a strategy to address the most critical risks. This page is your preparation blueprint for that task.

The 5-Step Exam Process

Your Blueprint
Steps:
Step 1 – Map the Nonmarket Landscape  First 5 min

Before ranking anything, get a full picture of the firm’s situation using the (ia)³ framework. Read the case once through. Then systematically ask:

DimensionQuestions to Answer from the CaseApple Example
IssuesWhat specific nonmarket problems does the firm face? List every one mentioned in the case.H-1B visa threat · DEI crackdown · Onshoring/tariff pressure · EU DMA/DSA fines
ActorsWho cares about each issue? Are they organised or diffuse? Homogeneous or fragmented?Trump admin · EU Commission · Conservative shareholders · Apple engineers · Consumers
InterestsWhat does each actor want? Who are your allies? Who are your adversaries? What coalitions exist?Trump wants leverage vs big tech; EU wants platform competition; employees want DEI protection
ArenasWhere will each issue be resolved? (Legislature, regulator, court, media, trade body, public opinion?)US Congress (H-1B) · EU regulatory bodies (DMA) · Courts (DEI lawsuits) · Media
InformationWhat facts, data, or narratives are shaping each issue? Who controls the story?Jobs data · EU fine calculations · App Store revenue figures · DEI lawsuit precedents
AssetsWhat nonmarket resources does the firm have? (Reputation, political access, legal teams, allies, money?)Apple: brand power, political access (but weakened), legal resources, market dominance
Key Insight from Wal-MartYou cannot manage what you cannot map. The (ia)³ framework is your diagnostic tool before you prescribe strategy. Firms that skip diagnosis (Nike, Wal-Mart early) always respond too late and to the wrong things.
Step 2 – Score Each Issue’s Severity  Core ranking task

For each issue you identified in Step 1, apply the severity formula. Then rank issues from highest to lowest. This is the explicit answer to Part 1 of the exam prompt.

SEVERITY RANKING FORMULA Severity = Probability of harm x Expected Loss if it occurs PROBABILITY factors to consider: - Is there a clear political will to enforce? (Selectorate: is it in W’s interest?) - Is there precedent? (Has this happened to other firms?) - How far along is the issue life cycle? (Identification < Formation < Legislation < Administration < Enforcement) - Are opponents organised, well-funded, single-issue? (High probability) - Are you an outsider with weak political ties? (Higher probability) EXPECTED LOSS factors to consider: - Financial: fines, tariffs, taxes, compliance costs (quantify if possible) - Operational: supply chain disruption, talent pipeline, market access - Reputational: brand damage, NGO campaigns, consumer boycotts - Regulatory: precedent that constrains future business model - Strategic: loss of competitive advantage or core capability VULNERABILITY modifier (from Aguas): - How sunk are your assets? Can you exit or pivot? - Do you have local political allies or are you exposed? - Does your own strategy make the risk worse? (Aguas’s sole-bidder leverage)
Severity Ranking TipsDon’t just list issues – justify the ranking. The best answers explain why Issue A is more severe than Issue B using specific probability and loss arguments. Use numbers where the case provides them (EU DMA = up to 10% of global revenue; that’s quantifiable). State assumptions when the case is silent.
Severity Matrix – Risk = Probability × Expected Loss
Probability of Harm Expected Loss Low High High Low Monitor Closely Low prob, high impact Build contingency plans #1 PRIORITY High prob + High impact Act immediately ← EU DMA for Apple Low Priority Low prob + Low impact Track; no urgent action Strategic Focus High prob, lower impact Manage proactively ← Onshoring for Apple Severity increases
Step 3 – Apply the Right Lens to Each Issue  Course knowledge

Each type of nonmarket issue calls for a specific analytical lens from the course. Matching issue to lens makes your analysis rigorous rather than generic.

Issue TypeBest LensCase ExampleKey Question It Answers
Government regulation / taxationSelectorate Theory + (ia)³Xstrata RSPT; Apple onshoringWhat does the leader’s coalition need? Will they actually enforce?
Trade policy / international rulesIssue Life Cycle + WTO/GATT frameworkChiquita banana warWhere are we in the cycle? What institutional arenas are available?
Political risk / FDI / expropriationObsolescing Bargain + Risk = P x LAguas del Aconquija; Apple vs EUHow has the balance of power shifted since investment was made?
NGO campaigns / boycotts / reputationalPrivate Politics + Visibility-Liability ParadoxNike; BP; FIJI WaterWho is the activist? What arena do they use? How organised?
CSR / stakeholder pressureCSR vs CSV + Strategic CSR frameworkPepsiCo; Disney; BPIs this window dressing or genuine value creation?
Labour / supply chainPrivate Politics + Supply Chain ResponsibilityNike; Apple/Foxconn momentHow far does responsibility extend? What governance gap exists?
Market disruption / regulatory backlashIssue Life Cycle + Nonmarket loser mobilisationUber; Platform regulationWho are the displaced losers? How quickly can they organise?
Step 4 – Build the Strategy for Top Risks  Part 2 of exam

Having ranked the issues, now build an integrated strategy to address the most severe. A great strategy has three qualities: it addresses the root cause of the risk (not just symptoms), it is operationally feasible, and it coordinates market and nonmarket moves together.

STRATEGY CONSTRUCTION CHECKLIST FOR EACH TOP-RANKED ISSUE: 1. ARENA SELECTION - Where is this issue most winnable? (Legislature, regulator, media, bilateral?) - Are you an insider with access, or an outsider needing allies? - From Xstrata: media can substitute when government access is blocked. 2. FRAMING / INFORMATION STRATEGY - What narrative works in your favour? (Jobs, innovation, consumer benefit?) - Who delivers it credibly? (You? Industry association? Government ally?) - From Xstrata: reframe “fairness” as “sovereign risk.” 3. COALITION BUILDING - Who shares your interest? Can they be mobilised? - From Selectorate: become important to the leader’s coalition survival. - From Chiquita: being right doesn’t help if you’re outside and alone. 4. TIMING - Where is the issue in its life cycle? Act earlier = more leverage. - From Wal-Mart: waiting until Stage 3-4 (legislation) is costly. 5. MARKET + NONMARKET INTEGRATION - Does your market strategy make the nonmarket problem worse? (Aguas: sole-bidder leverage inflated tariffs, which inflamed public anger) - Can your market strategy reduce nonmarket exposure? (Dole vs Chiquita: market adaptation as nonmarket hedge) 6. CONCESSIONS / TRADE-OFFS - What can you give to get what you need? - From Apple: concessions to Trump (onshoring signals) may unlock support vs EU. - From Xstrata: accept MRRT negotiation to split opposition and preserve operations.
Don’t Say “Just Lobby”A strategy that only says “lobby the government” is too thin. Specify: what frame, which credible third parties, which arena, what concessions you’re offering, and how your market moves align with your nonmarket position. Specificity is what separates strong exam answers from generic ones.
Step 5 – Tie It Together with Case Precedents  Bonus marks

The exam is testing whether you can apply course frameworks to a new case. Referencing real cases from the course (by name, with specific details) shows mastery. Each case transfers a specific lesson.

CaseTransferable LessonWhen to Deploy
UberDisruption creates organised losers who move to the nonmarket; government inevitably followsWhen the firm is a disruptor facing regulatory backlash
Selectorate / Wal-MartUnderstand the leader’s coalition survival needs; map (ia)³ before prescribing strategyAlways – this is the diagnostic foundation for every issue
XstrataEarly coalition + media framing + credible threats = politically expensive to ignoreWhen facing a hostile government regulatory threat you can fight
ChiquitaTiming (issue life cycle) + outside vs inside status determines effectiveness; being right may not save youWhen the firm is an outsider or is responding reactively
AguasObsolescing bargain; vulnerability grows post-investment; build local support before crisisAny FDI, long-term concession, or infrastructure investment scenario
NikeSupply chain = your responsibility; proactive NGO engagement > reactive crisis managementWhen reputational risk or NGO campaigns are the threat
PepsiCoCSR must complement the business model; distinguishing genuine CSV from window dressingWhen the firm faces societal pressure to change its core practices
BPGreen branding raises expectations; credibility gap between brand and operations is catastrophicWhen a firm has made ESG commitments that operational reality contradicts

Apple Case – Worked Ranking

Exam 2025 Walkthrough
How to Read ThisThe Apple exam case has four issues. Below is a worked severity ranking. In your exam, your ranking may differ – what matters is that you justify each position using Probability x Expected Loss logic and course frameworks.
RankIssueProbabilityExpected LossKey Justification
#1EU DMA/DSA (fines up to 10%/20% of global revenue)High – already enacted; non-compliance mechanism existsExistential – 10% of ~$400B revenue = $40B; App Store ecosystem threatenedQuantifiable; already in force; Apple needs US govt support but has limited leverage without concessions on issues #2–4
#2Onshoring / Tariff ThreatMedium-High – Trump rhetoric credible given steel, auto precedentsVery High – Apple’s supply chain is China-centric; shifting is $B-level cost over yearsCore to Apple’s cost structure; supply chain cannot move quickly; creates dependency on Trump’s good will for EU issue
#3H-1B Visa CrackdownMedium – executive action possible; Congress dividedHigh – talent pipeline for AI/chip design; replacing foreign engineers with US equivalents takes yearsLong-term competitive threat; Selectorate theory: helps Trump’s working-class coalition coalition narrative
#4DEI Rollback / PenaltiesLower – legal challenges likely to slow enforcement; courts uncertainMedium – reputational risk + employee relations + potential fines; but not existentialDispersed costs (customers); concentrated activist shareholders; legal uncertainty limits near-term probability

The 9-Step Course Story

How It All Connects
THE BGS COURSE AS A CONTINUOUS ARGUMENT 1. DISRUPTION CREATES BACKLASH (Uber) Your own success generates nonmarket enemies. Losers in the market move to the nonmarket to fight back. Expect government involvement in any heavily regulated sector. 2. UNDERSTAND POWER INCENTIVES (Selectorate Theory) Governments are not neutral referees. Leaders respond to coalition survival logic, not abstract fairness. To influence policy: become key to the leader’s survival. 3. DIAGNOSE SYSTEMATICALLY ((ia)3 + Wal-Mart) Map issues, actors, interests, arenas, information, assets. Watch where you are in the issue life cycle. You can’t manage what you can’t map. 4. CHOOSE INFLUENCE TACTICS (Xstrata) Reframe early. Build coalitions. Use the right arena. Media substitutes when direct government access is blocked. Industry associations shield foreign firms from scrutiny. 5. REMEMBER CROSS-BORDER POLITICS (Chiquita) Being right on law doesn’t help if you are late and outside. Distributional politics (who gets what) dominates. Build inside influence before you need it. 6. TREAT POLITICAL RISK AS DYNAMIC (Aguas) The obsolescing bargain: power shifts after investment. Vulnerability changes over time – build local allies before crisis. Your own market strategy may worsen your nonmarket exposure. 7. ACCOUNT FOR PRIVATE GOVERNANCE (Nike) NGOs can change de-facto rules without changing laws. Supply chains expand your zone of accountability. Proactive stakeholder engagement is cheaper than crisis management. 8. MAKE CSR STRATEGIC (PepsiCo) CSR only reduces risk if it fits the business model credibly. Distinguish CSV (creates value) from window dressing (manages pressure). Lobbying that contradicts your CSR narrative destroys credibility. 9. BEWARE CREDIBILITY TRAPS (BP) Sustainability branding raises the cost of operational failure. Greater visibility = greater accountability when things go wrong. The gap between brand promise and operational reality is lethal.
Sessions 10–11 · Part III The Lake Simulation – STR090151

Markets and Their Limits

Why and when do markets fail? The Lake Simulation puts students inside a collective action problem, experiencing first-hand why rational individual behaviour can produce catastrophic collective outcomes.

Environment Governance Economic Development
RationalIndividual extraction decision
IrrationalCollective outcome from same decisions
3 SolutionsPrivatise / Regulate / Self-govern
8Ostrom design principles
2009Ostrom Nobel Prize (Economics)

The Core Problem

Tragedy of the Commons
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1. The Tragedy of the Commons

Garrett Hardin (1968) identified a fundamental market failure: when a resource is held in common, rational individual decisions lead collectively to its destruction. Each person extracting from the commons captures the full benefit of their extraction, while sharing the cost of depletion with all others. The result is over-exploitation.

THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS – MECHANICS Individual calculus: Benefit of one extra extraction unit = 100% mine Cost of one extra extraction unit = shared among all N users Net incentive = always extract more Collective outcome: If every user applies the same rational logic --> Total extraction exceeds sustainable yield --> Resource is depleted --> All users end up worse off than if they had cooperated The Lake Simulation makes this tangible: Each team extracts fish from a shared lake Individual incentive = catch as many fish as possible Lake regenerates at a fixed rate If total catch > regeneration rate --> stock collapses Once collapsed, no one earns anything This is not a problem of bad intentions. It is a structural problem: market prices do not capture the cost of depletion that each extractor imposes on others.
Real-World ExamplesOverfishing in international waters · CO2 emissions (atmosphere as commons) · Groundwater depletion · Antibiotic resistance (overuse depletes effectiveness) · Traffic congestion (roads as commons) · Corporate lobbying for subsidy (government budget as commons). The lesson: any shared resource with open access and no governance is vulnerable.
2. Three Solutions – and Their Limits
SolutionMechanismAdvantageProblemExample
PrivatisationAssign property rights; owner internalises full cost of depletionOwner has incentive to manage sustainably for long-term valueNot all commons can be privatised (oceans, atmosphere); raises equity concernsPrivate fishing quotas; grazing land enclosure
Government RegulationState sets extraction limits, taxes, or outright bansCan be comprehensive; does not require voluntary cooperationEnforcement costs; regulatory capture; governments may not have information; corruptionFishing quotas; carbon taxes; hunting seasons
Self-Governance (Ostrom)Community develops and enforces its own rulesLower enforcement costs; local knowledge; legitimacy; flexibleRequires specific conditions (small group, shared identity, repeated interaction); difficult to scaleSwiss alpine commons; Maine lobster fishing communities; irrigation systems in Spain
Elinor Ostrom’s Nobel InsightOstrom won the 2009 Economics Nobel by showing empirically that communities can successfully self-govern commons without either privatisation or state regulation – but only under specific conditions. This directly challenged the conventional wisdom that the tragedy of the commons is inevitable without government intervention.
3. Ostrom’s 8 Design Principles for Sustainable Commons

Ostrom studied hundreds of real-world commons that did not collapse. She identified eight design principles that distinguished them from those that failed:

#PrincipleWhat It Means
1Clearly defined boundariesWho has the right to use the resource? Who is excluded? Without this, the group cannot enforce rules.
2Rules match local conditionsRules must fit the specific ecological and social context. Imported rules from elsewhere often fail.
3Collective choice arrangementsUsers themselves participate in modifying the rules. Top-down rules without buy-in collapse.
4MonitoringSomeone must monitor both the resource state and user behaviour. Either users themselves or accountable external parties.
5Graduated sanctionsViolations receive proportionate penalties, escalating with severity and repetition. Harsh first-time penalties breed resentment and non-compliance.
6Conflict resolution mechanismsLow-cost, accessible arenas for resolving disputes between users and with governance bodies.
7Recognised right to organiseExternal government authorities recognise the community’s right to govern itself. Without this, rules have no legitimacy.
8Nested enterprisesFor larger systems, governance is built in multiple layers (local → regional → national). No single-level solution works for all scales.
4. Connection to the Course – Nonmarket Implications

The Lake Simulation is not just an environmental lesson. It demonstrates a fundamental logic that runs through the entire course:

BGS ThemeCommons ConnectionCase Link
Why governments interveneMarkets fail to price externalities; state must set rules to prevent commons collapseUber (regulatory intervention inevitable); Aguas (water is a natural monopoly – near-commons)
CSR as commons governanceWhen industries collectively deplete a commons (reputation, environment, consumer trust), CSR is a form of self-governancePepsiCo (obesity epidemic = shared cost); BP (atmosphere as carbon commons)
Industry self-regulationThe FLA (Nike), MCA (Xstrata), Fair Trade: industries creating Ostrom-style governance to avoid harsher state regulationNike FLA; Xstrata MCA campaign discipline
The lobbying commonsIf every firm lobbies for subsidies from the same government budget, the budget is a commons. Collective over-lobbying produces the fiscal equivalent of depletion.PepsiCo lobbying against soda taxes
Exam ApplicationWhen a case involves industries sharing a resource (reputation, regulatory goodwill, environmental commons), think: is this a tragedy of the commons problem? Who should govern it, and how? This lens applies broadly – not just to obvious environmental cases.
5. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Explain the Tragedy of the Commons using the Lake Simulation as your example. Why is it a market failure and not a moral failure?
  2. Compare the three solutions to the tragedy of the commons (privatisation, regulation, self-governance). Under what conditions does each work best?
  3. Apply Ostrom’s design principles to evaluate a real-world commons governance system of your choice (e.g., a fishery, a city park, an industry code of conduct).
  4. How does the commons problem help explain why governments inevitably intervene in markets? Link to at least two cases from the course.
  5. Is carbon emissions a commons problem? Who are the relevant actors? What governance solutions have been tried, and why have they been only partially successful?
Session 12 · Part IV FIJI Water – HBS 611049

It’s Not Easy Being Green

FIJI Water claimed to be “carbon negative” while shipping bottles 5,470 miles by cargo ship. It claimed to love Fiji while registering profits in the Cayman Islands. The case applies every course lens to a single company in simultaneous crisis.

Environment Social Challenge
5,470Miles shipped to San Francisco
120%FIJI’s carbon-negative claim
45xWater tax increase by Fiji govt
$2.29Per litre retail price (vs $1.00 Dasani)
99 yrAquifer lease obtained by founder
2010Class action lawsuit filed

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
FIJI Water / Roll International
Premium Water Brand
Founded 1995; $150M revenue (2007); 1% global market share. Built premium brand on exotic origin story. Launched “carbon negative” campaign Nov 2007. Parent company Roll International registered profits in Luxembourg and Cayman Islands – undermining sustainability narrative.
Fijian Government
Host Government – Asserting Rights
Increased water extraction tax 45x in Nov 2010 (from 0.003 to 0.15 Fijian cents/litre) applying only to extractors over 3.5M litres/month – effectively targeting FIJI Water exclusively. President Bainimarama declared FIJI Water “does not care about Fiji or Fijians.”
California Plaintiffs
Class Action Lawsuit
Filed suit Dec 20, 2010, claiming FIJI Water profited from “deceptive and misleading” carbon-negative claim using a “dubious and discredited” carbon accounting method. Premium price consumers paid was “inflated” based on false environmental claim.
Mother Jones / Environmental Media
Reputational Critics
Published critical accounts of how FIJI Water obtained exclusive aquifer access while Fijians faced typhoid outbreaks from unsafe public water. Exposed the contrast between FIJI’s sustainability marketing and its tax haven structure and government confrontations.
Consumers (Premium Segment)
Greenwashing Targets
FIJI Water sells at $2.29/litre vs $1.00 for Dasani. The premium was justified partly by the sustainability narrative. Carbon-negative claim was the marketing hook. Once the claim was challenged, the value proposition for the price premium eroded.
Carbon Offset Market
Institutional Arena
FIJI Water planned to achieve carbon-negativity through a combination of efficiency improvements and carbon offset purchases. The lawsuit challenged whether its offset methodology met “additionality” requirements – the offsets had to fund activities that would not have happened anyway.

Analysis

Session Content
Page:
1. Two Simultaneous Crises – Applying the Full Course Toolkit

FIJI Water in 2010 faced two completely distinct nonmarket crises simultaneously. This is why it is the “applying what we’ve learned” case – it requires deploying multiple frameworks at once.

CrisisNatureKey FrameworkLesson from Previous Case
Carbon-negative lawsuit (Dec 2010)Greenwashing / credibility trapBP visibility-liability paradox; CSR vs CSVGreen marketing claims raise expectations – any gap between claim and reality becomes a legal liability
Fiji govt tax hike (Nov 2010)Obsolescing bargain / political riskAguas del Aconquija; Risk = P x LPower shifts post-investment; sole concession holder is vulnerable; aggressive extraction posture inflames political opposition
The Common ThreadBoth crises have the same root: FIJI Water overstated its green credentials and under-invested in its relationship with the host community. The “carbon negative” claim was a marketing construct that couldn’t survive scrutiny. The company’s tax haven structure and confrontational stance with the Fijian government undermined any claim to caring about Fiji. The crises reinforce each other.
2. The Greenwashing Risk Spectrum

FIJI Water’s carbon-negative claim illustrates a broader spectrum of green marketing credibility. Where a company sits on this spectrum determines its vulnerability to legal and reputational challenge.

LevelClaim TypeCredibilityExample
AuthenticOperationally backed; third-party verified; marginal claim onlyHigh – survives scrutinyToyota Prius (actual product); Patagonia (supply chain transparency)
Strategic CSRReal initiatives; genuine reduction; modest claimsMedium-high – generally credibleBP’s early emissions reductions (before Deepwater)
AspirationalReal goal; partial progress; forward-looking claimMedium – credible if progress visiblePepsiCo 2025 sugar reduction targets
GreenwashingClaim overstated; methodology questionable; marketing-ledLow – vulnerable to legal challengeFIJI Water “120% carbon negative”; Smart Choices (Froot Loops)
FraudDemonstrably false; no supporting evidenceZero – legal liability certainFalse organic certification; invented environmental data
Carbon Offset Additionality ProblemFor carbon offsets to be credible, they must be “additional” – they must fund activities that would not have happened without the offset revenue. FIJI Water’s offsets were challenged on this ground. If the offset-funded activity (e.g., a forest that would have been protected anyway) would have happened regardless, the carbon accounting is circular. This is a technical but legally important distinction.
3. The Obsolescing Bargain – FIJI Water vs Fiji Government

The Fijian government’s tax hike is a textbook Obsolescing Bargain (from Session 6). The pattern is identical to Aguas del Aconquija:

StageAguas (Tucumán)FIJI Water (Fiji)
Initial dealOnly bidder; negotiated higher tariffs + lower investmentExclusive 99-year lease on aquifer; tax holiday until 2008
Post-investment shiftInfrastructure sunk; 104% price hike; brown waterMassive shipping emissions; tax havens; aquifer monopoly while locals lack clean water
Political triggerElection of new governor (Bussi) promising renegotiationFijian government asserts economic nationalism; 45x tax hike
Company responseFroze investment; diplomatic pressure; eventually ICSIDCalled tax “discriminatory”; threatened to close and leave
OutcomeConcession terminated; $700M ICSID claim still pendingNegotiated; government backed down on prior tax increase but not the 2010 one
What FIJI Water Should Have DoneLike Aguas, FIJI Water should have invested in the host community’s access to clean water – the very product it was profiting from. The irony of exporting premium water while Fijians lacked safe tap water was a reputational and political time bomb. Proactive community investment would have reduced the government’s political incentive to impose punitive taxes.
4. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Apply the Obsolescing Bargain model to FIJI Water’s relationship with the Fijian government. At what point did the company’s bargaining power peak? What should it have done differently?
  2. Is FIJI Water’s “carbon negative” claim greenwashing? Use the greenwashing spectrum to evaluate the claim. What specific elements make it vulnerable to legal challenge?
  3. FIJI Water faced two simultaneous crises in 2010. Which is more severe? Use Risk = Probability x Expected Loss to justify your ranking.
  4. Compare FIJI Water’s situation to BP. What do these two cases have in common in terms of the gap between brand promise and operational reality?
  5. If you were advising FIJI Water’s CEO in November 2010, what strategy would you recommend for (a) the Fijian government tax dispute and (b) the California class action lawsuit?
Session 13 · Part IV Disney – Darden UV8515

How Far Does CSR Extend?

Disney’s “Don’t Say Gay” crisis is a masterclass in the limits of corporate political neutrality. When a brand’s identity is built on inclusion, silence on inclusion issues is itself a political act – and employees know it.

Governance Social Challenge Economic Development
$67BDisney revenue (2021)
$250B+Market value (early 2022)
$149→$111Stock price Feb–Apr 2022
52%US voters supported HB 1557
64%Americans supported K-3 restriction (Daily Wire poll)
1967Reedy Creek District established

Cast of Characters

Key Actors
Bob Chapek
CEO, Disney (2020–2022)
Resolved in January 2022 to stay apolitical on “controversial issues.” His position collapsed under simultaneous pressure from LGBTQ+ employees (demanding public opposition) and Florida Republicans (furious at any opposition). Failed to satisfy either side. His communications chief resigned in April. Chapek himself was fired in November 2022.
Bob Iger
Former CEO – Vocal Critic
Iger publicly opposed the bill on social media and in interviews: “A lot of these issues are not necessarily political. It’s about right and wrong.” His willingness to take a position while Chapek wavered created an internal leadership crisis and emboldened employee protesters. Iger returned as CEO in November 2022.
LGBTQ+ Disney Employees
Internal Activist Stakeholders
Organised 15-minute daily walkouts from March 15; full walkout March 22. Created website with 200+ testimonials; published detailed open letter with 6 specific demands including stopping all Florida political donations and halting construction in the state. Made the internal crisis external and public.
Governor Ron DeSantis
Florida Government – Retaliator
After Disney publicly opposed HB 1557, DeSantis called Disney a “woke corporation,” attacked its China business, and signed legislation dissolving the Reedy Creek Improvement District – the special government status that had given Disney enormous operational autonomy since 1967. A direct governmental retaliation for corporate activism.
Florida Legislature
Institutional Arena
HB 1557 passed the Florida House on February 24, the Senate on March 8. Governor DeSantis signed it March 28. The bill prohibited classroom instruction on sexual orientation or gender identity in K-3. The Reedy Creek dissolution bill was signed April 22 – a direct political punishment for Disney’s activism.
Conservative Stakeholders / Parents
Counter-Constituency
Polls showed 51–64% of Americans supported the K-3 provision (depending on how the question was framed). Disney’s public opposition therefore meant taking a position opposed by a majority of its customer base. This is the core dilemma of corporate political activism: internal stakeholders vs. external customer majority.

Analysis

Session Content
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1. The Impossible Position: Why Silence Was Not Neutral

Chapek’s initial instinct – stay apolitical, let the stories speak – was strategically coherent for a company serving broadly diverse customers. But for Disney specifically, it failed for one reason: Disney’s brand identity had been built on inclusion, diversity, and protection of marginalised communities through its “Reimagine Tomorrow” campaign and content strategy.

The Identity TrapWhen a brand’s core identity is built on a value (inclusion, sustainability, community), silence on issues that directly threaten that value is itself a political act. Employees and external stakeholders read silence as complicity. Chapek’s error was not staying silent – it was building an identity around inclusion and then trying to stay silent on an inclusion issue.
StakeholderDesired Disney ResponseHow Chapek’s Path Failed Them
LGBTQ+ employeesImmediate public opposition; stop Florida political donationsSilence read as betrayal of stated values; walkouts organised; open letter published
Florida RepublicansStay out of Florida politics; don’t oppose the billOnce Chapek buckled and opposed the bill, Republicans felt betrayed by a major Florida taxpayer
Conservative customersDon’t take sides on contested social issuesDisney opposition to a majority-supported provision alienated a large segment
Investors / ShareholdersProtect the Reedy Creek special status; don’t create political enemiesThe Reedy Creek dissolution added regulatory costs and removed decades of operational advantages
2. Corporate Political Activism – The Strategic Framework

The Disney case raises the fundamental question of this session: how far does a corporation’s social responsibility extend? Does it include taking public positions on contested social and political issues unrelated to its core business?

CORPORATE POLITICAL ACTIVISM DECISION FRAMEWORK WHEN TO SPEAK (lower risk): 1. Issue directly affects your business operations or employees (Disney HQ moving to Florida; employees required to live there) 2. Issue is directly connected to your brand identity (Disney’s inclusion brand vs. LGBTQ+ protection bill) 3. Broad stakeholder consensus exists (90%+ agree) (Easier to speak on clearly uncontroversial issues) 4. Silence has clear costs (employee walkouts, talent flight) WHEN TO STAY SILENT (lower risk): 1. Issue is genuinely contested, with roughly equal public support (HB 1557: 51-64% support depending on framing) 2. Your core customer base is split by the issue 3. Speaking creates a powerful political enemy with regulatory power (DeSantis controlled Reedy Creek) 4. Your brand is “universal” (designed to be for everyone) THE DISNEY TRAP: Disney had created an inclusion brand identity AND operates in a politically contested state with regulatory dependencies. This combination made neutrality structurally impossible. Either choice offended a major stakeholder.
Bob Iger’s View“When you’re dealing with right and wrong – when you’re dealing with something that does have profound impact on your business – I just think you have to do what is right and not worry about the potential backlash.” This “moral clarity” view is compelling – but it ignores the reality that “right and wrong” was genuinely contested in this case, as the polling data shows.
3. The Nonmarket Consequences – Reedy Creek Retaliation

The most dramatic nonmarket consequence was DeSantis’s move to dissolve the Reedy Creek Improvement District – a special government structure established in 1967 that gave Disney extraordinary self-governance in Florida.

What Reedy Creek MeantReedy Creek allowed Disney to function as its own government: collecting its own taxes, issuing its own bonds, running its own utilities, setting its own building codes, issuing its own permits. This saved Disney enormous costs and gave it speed and flexibility unavailable to any competitor. Its dissolution (effective June 2023) was a direct regulatory punishment for corporate political activism – a new kind of government leverage over business speech.
TimelineEventStock Impact
Feb 24, 2022HB 1557 passes Florida House$149.50
Mar 8, 2022Bill passes Florida Senate; Chapek buckles and opposes publicly$131.75 (−12%)
Apr 22, 2022DeSantis signs bill dissolving Reedy Creek$118.27 (−21% from peak)
Apr 29, 2022Disney communications chief resigns$111.63 (−25% from peak)

Disney’s experience illustrates a critical new dynamic in corporate political activism: governments can and will use regulatory power to retaliate against companies that take political positions they oppose. This raises the stakes of corporate activism dramatically – and changes the calculus for firms with significant regulatory dependencies.

4. Exam Prep – Key Questions
  1. Was Chapek’s initial decision to stay silent on HB 1557 the right one? Evaluate it using the Corporate Political Activism framework. What were the nonmarket costs of silence vs. speaking?
  2. Apply the (ia)³ framework to Disney’s situation. Who were the key actors? What were their interests? Which arenas mattered? What assets did Disney have and lack?
  3. DeSantis’s Reedy Creek retaliation represents a new form of nonmarket risk for companies that engage in political activism. How should companies factor this into their decision-making?
  4. Bob Iger said the issue was “right and wrong, not politics.” The polling data suggests 51–64% of Americans supported HB 1557. Can a contested issue be both “right and wrong” and politically contested simultaneously? What does this mean for corporate activism?
  5. Compare the Disney case to Wal-Mart (Session 2-3). Both companies faced pressure to take positions on controversial social issues. How do their situations differ, and what different strategies do those differences suggest?
Session 14 · Part IV · Exam Case Apple – March 2025

Navigating Conflicting Problems

Apple’s New Political Reality is the 2025 exam case. Four overlapping nonmarket crises under the Trump administration – each requiring a different strategic response, and each entangled with the others.

Governance Social Challenge Economic Development
10%EU DMA fine (global revenue)
20%EU DMA repeat offence fine
6%EU DSA fine (global revenue)
H-1BKey visa for Apple engineers
ChinaPrimary manufacturing location
4Simultaneous nonmarket crises

The Four Nonmarket Issues

Case Summary
Page:
Issue 1 – EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) & Digital Services Act (DSA)

The EU DMA forces Apple to open its platforms to third-party app stores and payment systems – directly threatening Apple’s closed-ecosystem model and App Store revenue. Non-compliance fines can reach 10% of global revenue, with repeat offences at 20%. The DSA adds transparency requirements on content moderation and advertising, with fines up to 6% of global revenue. Additionally, the EU has mandated USB-C ports, displacing Apple’s Lightning connector.

DimensionAssessment
ProbabilityHigh – DMA is already enacted and being enforced; Apple has already faced EU investigations
Expected LossExistential – App Store generates ~$85B+ revenue; 10-20% of $400B+ global revenue = up to $80B
Severity RankingMost severe (#1) – quantifiable, certain, already in force, directly threatens core revenue model
Key ConstraintApple cannot influence EU regulation alone; needs US government advocacy to create pressure on Brussels
The EntanglementApple needs Trump to fight the EU. Trump will only fight if Apple concedes on other issues (onshoring, H-1B, DEI)
Trump’s LeverageTrump has explicitly warned: “When they have problems with China, with the EU, with whoever – don’t come running to me. I’ll be helping companies putting America first.” Apple’s need for US government support against the EU gives Trump enormous leverage to demand concessions on the other three issues.
Issue 2 – Onshoring / Tariff Threat

Trump has threatened tariffs, penalties, and regulatory action against companies that manufacture overseas rather than in the US. Apple’s supply chain is deeply embedded in China (and parts of Asia). Shifting production to the US would dramatically increase costs and take years.

DimensionAssessment
ProbabilityMedium-high – credible given steel/auto tariff precedents; Apple is a high-profile target
Expected LossVery high – Apple’s cost structure built on Asian manufacturing; US shift would add $B-level costs to iPhone production; estimated iPhone price would rise significantly
Severity RankingSecond most severe (#2) – core to Apple’s competitive advantage
Strategic LogicConcessions (e.g., announcing US manufacturing investment, even if modest) could satisfy Trump politically at relatively low cost vs. tariff alternative
The Selectorate AngleTrump’s “Made in America” narrative is core to his winning coalition (working-class manufacturing states). Using Selectorate Theory: any policy that Apple can frame as creating US jobs helps Trump’s coalition and reduces the political cost of leaving Apple alone. This is Apple’s main lever: give Trump a headline win without fundamentally restructuring the supply chain.
Issue 3 – H-1B Visa Crackdown

Apple has been one of the largest H-1B visa beneficiaries. Trump has signalled a crackdown, arguing the programme takes jobs from American workers. Apple argues these visas are essential for software engineering, machine learning, and chip design talent.

DimensionAssessment
ProbabilityMedium – executive action possible but politically contested (some Trump allies support H-1B for tech)
Expected LossHigh long-term – AI and chip design talent pipeline; replacing foreign engineers takes years; immediate disruption if implemented
Severity RankingThird (#3) – serious but slower-moving; political will more divided
Issue Life CycleStill in agenda-setting to interest group formation stages; not yet at legislation; maximum leverage window is now
Issue 4 – DEI Rollback

Trump has declared war on corporate DEI initiatives, threatening fines, lawsuits, and penalties. Conservative activist shareholders have pressured Apple to scale back DEI, arguing it creates legal and financial risks.

DimensionAssessment
ProbabilityLower – legal challenges to anti-DEI enforcement are likely; courts have been divided; executive orders can be overturned
Expected LossMedium – reputational risk (employee relations, diverse talent attraction) + potential fines, but not existential
Severity RankingLeast severe (#4) – lower probability, medium loss, high legal uncertainty
ComplicationDEI position affects Apple’s relationship with progressive employees (who the H-1B cuts would also affect); both issues touch the same talent base
Strategy – How Should Apple Navigate This?

The Apple case is explicitly designed to force prioritisation and integrated strategy. The four issues are entangled: Apple’s ability to address Issue 1 (EU/DMA) depends critically on its relationship with Trump, which in turn depends on what concessions it makes on Issues 2–4.

APPLE’S STRATEGIC LOGIC PRIORITY: Issue 1 (EU DMA) is existential. Solve this first. TO SOLVE ISSUE 1 (EU DMA): --> Apple needs US government advocacy against EU tech regulation --> Trump will only advocate if Apple signals “America First” commitment --> Therefore: make credible concessions on Issues 2-4 to unlock Issue 1 ON ISSUE 2 (ONSHORING): --> Announce significant US manufacturing investment (e.g., $500B+ over 5 years) [Note: Apple actually announced $500B in US investment Feb 2025] --> Shift some assembly to US (even if marginal at first) --> Frame as “Apple creating American jobs” – gives Trump a headline win --> Cost: manageable if phased; far less than EU fines ON ISSUE 3 (H-1B): --> Lobby through tech industry coalitions (not alone) --> Invest heavily in US STEM education as offset (“We are growing the American talent pool”) --> Offer apprenticeship/training programmes in manufacturing states ON ISSUE 4 (DEI): --> Quietly rebrand DEI as “merit-based inclusion” or “talent excellence” --> Maintain substantive programmes without visible branding --> Avoid direct confrontation; engage legal process if enforcement threatened OVERALL INTEGRATED STRATEGY: MARKET: Maintain supply chain efficiency; phase US investment gradually NONMARKET: Trade credible concessions on Issues 2-4 for Trump support on Issue 1 COALITION: Organise with other tech firms facing EU regulation ARENA: Bilateral US-EU diplomatic channel (not just Apple alone)
The Xstrata ParallelLike Xstrata in Australia, Apple must decide how much to concede to the government in exchange for political protection. Xstrata accepted the MRRT negotiation (a partial loss) to avoid the RSPT (a total loss). Apple should similarly accept credible US concessions (onshoring signals) to gain US protection against the EU (an existential threat).
Session 15 · In-Class Exam

Exam Prep Hub

Cross-case comparison matrix, master framework selection guide, and worked examples. Use this alongside the Barber's Playbook tab.

Environment Governance Social Challenge Economic Development

Cross-Case Comparison Matrix

All 10 Cases
CasePrimary Issue TypeFirm’s ErrorWhat WorkedKey Framework
UberRegulatory disruption; stakeholder backlashNo nonmarket strategy; identity ambiguityUser base as political shield(ia)³; Issue Life Cycle
Wal-MartReputation risk; labour/health/environmentIgnored nonmarket until Stage 3–4; reactiveEventually: media, environment, community(ia)³; Integrated Strategy
XstrataTax regulation; political strategyNot consulted; no early engagementFast coalition; media; credible threatsLobbying; Issue Life Cycle
ChiquitaTrade policy; WTO; external outsiderAsleep during policy formation; outside actorLegal route (right but slow)Issue Life Cycle; WTO/GATT
AguasPolitical risk; FDI; obsolescing bargain104% price hike; no community support; sole bidderNothing worked; left ICSID claimObsolescing Bargain; Risk = P x L
NikeNGO campaigns; labour; private politicsDenial; no proactive stakeholder engagementFLA; Knight confession; reform programmePrivate Politics; Visibility-Liability
PepsiCoHealth/CSR; societal pressureNutriwashing; lobbying contradicts CSR claimsR&D investment; healthy acquisitionsCSR vs CSV; Porter & Kramer
BPESG branding; credibility trapBrand above operational reality; safety cutsInitial differentiation strategy (before Deepwater)Visibility-Liability; ESG credibility
FIJI WaterGreenwashing; obsolescing bargainOverstated green claim; hostile to host govtPremium brand (before crisis)Greenwashing spectrum; Obsolescing Bargain
DisneyCorporate political activism; brand riskIdentity trap; no coherent positionNothing worked; Chapek eventually firedCorporate Political Activism; Stakeholder Conflict

Success & Failure Patterns

Cross-Case Lessons
Patterns of Success Proactive engagement: Engaged nonmarket environment before crisis (Xstrata Day 8; Nike eventually).

Coalition building: Found allies who amplified their message with credibility (MCA for Xstrata; FLA for Nike).

Right arena: Chose the arena where they had most leverage (media for Xstrata when consultation failed).

Market + nonmarket aligned: Market strategy reinforced rather than undermined nonmarket position (Toyota Prius; Starbucks fair trade).
Patterns of Failure Reactive too late: Wal-Mart, Chiquita, Aguas all acted at Stage 3–4 when influence was minimal.

Denial: Nike’s “we don’t make shoes” and Aguas’s confrontational stance made crises worse.

Brand-reality gap: BP and FIJI Water made claims their operations couldn’t support.

Market strategy worsened NM exposure: Aguas’s sole-bidder leverage inflamed public; Chiquita’s debt made market adaptation impossible.

The Visibility–Liability Relationship

Key Pattern
The Core DynamicThe more visible and successful a firm becomes, the larger the nonmarket target on its back. Nike, BP, FIJI Water, and Disney all experienced this: brand success created brand vulnerability. Higher market visibility = higher nonmarket accountability. When you are a symbol of something, you become a symbol of its failures. This is structural, not accidental. The implication: CSR and nonmarket strategy are not optional for successful firms; they are more important as a firm grows.
Reference

Glossary

Key terms, frameworks, and concepts from Sessions 1–15, organised by course part – not alphabetically.

Part I – Foundations: Markets, Government and Politics
Nonmarket Environment
The social, political, regulatory, legal, and institutional forces that structure interactions outside of markets and shape business outcomes. Includes relationships with governments, NGOs, media, and citizens mediated by public institutions rather than price signals.
Market Environment
Relationships between a firm and other parties mediated by markets (price) or private agreements: customers, suppliers, and competitors.
Integrated Strategy
A corporate strategy that coordinates market positioning and nonmarket positioning simultaneously, so that each reinforces rather than undermines the other. Integrated strategy can enable, complement, reinforce, or protect the market strategy.
(ia)³ Framework
The primary tool for nonmarket analysis. Six dimensions: Issues (what is the problem?), Actors (who cares?), Interests (what do they want?), Arenas (where is it resolved?), Information (what facts shape it?), Assets (what resources are needed to prevail?).
Issue Life Cycle
The predictable path nonmarket issues follow: (1) Issue identification → (2) Interest group formation → (3) Legislation → (4) Administration → (5) Enforcement. Firm leverage is highest in stages 1–2 and falls rapidly. The cost of not acting rises with each stage.
Selectorate Theory
A theory of political survival (Bueno de Mesquita et al.). Political leaders’ primary interest is survival. They govern via a Winning Coalition (W) drawn from the broader Selectorate (S). The W/S ratio determines whether leaders deliver public goods (large W) or private goods/kleptocracy (small W).
Winning Coalition (W)
The subset of the selectorate whose active support the leader needs to hold power. Keeping W loyal – through policy benefits – is the leader’s primary strategic imperative. Firms that become important to W’s interests gain political protection.
Risk = Probability × Expected Loss
The core severity formula. Risk is a product of how likely an adverse event is (probability) and how much harm it would cause if it occurred (expected loss). Both dimensions must be assessed to rank nonmarket issues from most to least severe.
Private Politics
NGO and activist campaigns that attempt to change corporate behaviour directly – without passing through government or legislation. Uses public pressure, media, consumer campaigns, and investor engagement. Baron (2003). The Nike campaign is the textbook example.
Shareholder Capitalism
The American model: a firm’s fundamental purpose is to generate profit for investors/shareholders. The corporation is treated as a commodity to be bought and sold. Management is separated from ownership. Strong antitrust laws prevent concentration. Employees and communities have minimal formal claims on the firm.
Stakeholder Capitalism
The German/Japanese model: corporations have major responsibilities to their stakeholders (workers, subcontractors, suppliers, local communities), not just shareholders. Profitability is given less weight than economic stability and social welfare. Hostile and foreign takeovers are limited by governance structures (keiretsu, codetermination).
Keiretsu
Japanese: networks of businesses linked by cross-shareholding, centred on a “main bank” that provides capital and guidance. Makes hostile takeovers near-impossible; creates closed system resistant to foreign outsiders. Long-term stakeholder orientation over short-term shareholder returns.
Codetermination (Mitbestimmung)
German law requiring equal labour representation on supervisory boards of large companies. Workers are formal co-owners of strategic decisions. A firm’s Works Council has legal authority over workplace policies. Makes nonmarket strategy an internal negotiation process, not just external campaign management.
Developmental State
A state that actively steers the economy through industrial policy, “administrative guidance,” and support for national champions. Japan’s MITI is the prototype. The state sees itself as a co-strategist of industry, not a neutral referee. Lobbying requires partnership, not just information campaigns.
Part II – The Political Environment and Corporate Strategy
The Loser’s Paradox / Asymmetric Lobbying
Baldwin & Robert-Nicoud (2001): declining industries lobby harder than growing ones because they have sunk costs that cannot be recovered if they exit. In expanding industries, policy-created rents attract new entrants that erode the gains, reducing lobbying incentives. Result: it is not that governments pick losers; losers pick government policy.
Political Bargaining Model (PBM)
Eden, Lenway & Schuler (2004): an updated framework for MNE-host country relations that replaces the one-directional Obsolescing Bargain Model. PBM treats MNE-state relations as iterative, multi-issue, and often cooperative. Bargaining power depends on ongoing relative resources of both parties, not just the direction of post-investment power shift.
Lobbying
Any action designed to influence the actions of the institutions of government (APPC definition). Lobbying is primarily about the strategic use of information: reframing issues, building coalitions, and using the right arena to influence policy before it is locked in.
Message Framing
The strategic choice of how to present an issue to shape how audiences understand it. Effective reframing requires frequency, consistency, and appeal to core values. Xstrata reframed “fairness to Australians” as “sovereign risk to investment” to shift public opinion.
Protectionism / Concentrated Benefits, Dispersed Costs
A political economy pattern: policies whose benefits are concentrated among a small, organised group (who lobby intensely) and whose costs are dispersed across many consumers (who do not organise). Explains why economically inefficient protectionist policies persist.
Most-Favoured Nation (MFN)
WTO principle requiring that any trade advantage granted to one member country be granted to all member countries. The basis of non-discrimination in international trade. The EU banana regime violated MFN by favouring ACP countries over Latin American suppliers.
Section 301 (US Trade Act)
A US trade law mechanism allowing American companies to petition the US Trade Representative (USTR) for relief from foreign trade barriers that burden US commerce. Provides leverage in trade negotiations by making sanctions a possibility.
Obsolescing Bargain Model (Vernon, 1971)
Before investment, the firm has bargaining power (capital, technology, choice of location). After investment, assets become sunk costs and the host government sees the firm as captive. Power shifts from firm to host over time, creating renegotiation and expropriation risk.
ICSID (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes)
The World Bank’s international arbitration body for investment disputes. Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) allow companies to sue host governments through ICSID if investments are not protected. BITs supersede local court requirements.
Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT)
An agreement between two countries that provides mutual protection for investors from each country in the other’s territory. BITs typically include ICSID arbitration clauses that give companies access to international dispute resolution against host governments.
Part III – Strategy and Sustainability
Visibility-Liability Paradox
The structural dynamic where brand visibility and market success create proportional nonmarket accountability. The more famous a firm becomes, the larger the target on its back. Nike, BP, and FIJI Water all experienced this: success made them symbols, and symbols bear the cost of what they symbolise.
CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility)
A firm’s acknowledgement of its broader responsibilities to society beyond profit maximisation. Porter & Kramer distinguish responsive CSR (good citizenship; mitigation of harms) from strategic CSR (initiatives that reinforce competitive context).
CSV (Creating Shared Value)
Porter & Kramer’s concept: economic value that is also social value. Unlike CSR (viewed as a cost), CSV is integral to competitive strategy and profit maximisation. Shared value = economic benefits for the firm AND societal benefits simultaneously, not a trade-off.
Greenwashing
The practice of making environmental claims in marketing that overstate actual environmental performance. Exposed when the gap between claim and operational reality becomes visible. Creates legal liability (class action) and reputational damage (NGO campaigns). FIJI Water’s “carbon negative” claim is a textbook example.
Carbon Offset Additionality
The requirement that carbon offsets must fund activities that would not have occurred without the offset revenue. Without additionality, purchasing offsets does not actually reduce net emissions – it merely finances activities that would have happened anyway.
ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance)
A framework used by investors and companies to evaluate non-financial performance dimensions. ESG claims raise stakeholder expectations; failure to meet them (especially on operations) creates a credibility trap where the ESG brand amplifies the reputational damage of any operational failure.
Tragedy of the Commons
Hardin (1968). When a shared resource is open to all, rational individual extraction decisions lead to collective depletion. Each user captures the full benefit of extraction while sharing the cost of depletion with all. The market fails because prices do not reflect the full social cost.
Ostrom Design Principles
Eight conditions identified by Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom for successful commons self-governance: (1) defined boundaries, (2) rules match local conditions, (3) collective choice, (4) monitoring, (5) graduated sanctions, (6) conflict resolution, (7) recognised right to organise, (8) nested enterprises for larger systems.
Nutriwashing
The food-industry equivalent of greenwashing: making nutritional claims on products that overstate their health benefits. Examples: Smart Choices programme certifying Froot Loops (41% sugar); green symbols on processed foods with minimal nutritional value.
Part IV – Applying What We’ve Learned
Corporate Political Activism
A company taking public positions on contested social or political issues, often going beyond its core business concerns. Creates risk of alienating customers, suppliers, or government allies who hold opposing views. Risk is highest when: (1) the issue is genuinely contested, (2) the firm has regulatory dependencies, and (3) the firm’s brand identity is not clearly aligned with the position.
Reedy Creek Improvement District
Disney’s special self-government zone in Florida (est. 1967), giving Disney extraordinary operational autonomy: self-taxation, bond issuance, utilities, building codes, permits. Dissolved by DeSantis in 2023 as retaliation for Disney’s opposition to HB 1557 – a landmark case of governmental retaliation for corporate political activism.
Digital Markets Act (DMA)
EU regulation targeting major digital “gatekeepers” (Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon). Requires opening platforms to third-party competitors (e.g., alternative app stores, payment systems). Non-compliance fines up to 10% of global annual revenue; repeat offences up to 20%.
Credibility Trap
A situation where a firm’s public commitments (ESG, CSR, values) set expectations so high that any operational failure is disproportionately damaging. BP’s “Beyond Petroleum” brand created a credibility trap: safety failures that would have been “normal” at Exxon became existential at BP because they revealed the gap between brand and reality.
The “Nike Moment”
Industry shorthand for the tipping point when accumulated negative publicity around supply chain practices reaches critical mass and forces a company to fundamentally rethink its nonmarket strategy. The term was applied to Apple’s Foxconn crisis in 2012 by an FLA auditor.
Privatisation of Global Governance
The trend where NGOs and civil society actors shape de-facto global rules – particularly for labour, environment, and human rights – in areas where formal international law does not reach. Certification regimes (FLA, Fair Trade), investor campaigns, and consumer boycotts are the primary mechanisms.
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